Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Class A Common Stock (NP) fair value
Financial Services · Insurance Brokers · NYSE · United States
$28.44-0.97%
Market cap $3.9BNext earnings 2026-10-20Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 175% above our fair value
Price
$28.44
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$10.33
Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionNeptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Class A Common Stock (NP)
Fair value (3 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$23.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 24 Oct 2026, 03:20 CEST; previously $28.00 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $28.44 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
54
out of 100
Analysts
62% buy
13 covering
P/E
124.9x
forward 41.3x
1-year return
+13.4%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Neptune Insurance Holdings writes flood insurance, primarily through the National Flood Insurance Program's private-market alternative and its own admitted and surplus-lines products, and earns commissions and fees on that distribution. Its moat is an operating model that keeps roughly half of each revenue dollar as operating profit, with a 47.5% operating margin and a 52.7% gross margin, which is unusually high for an insurance broker. Revenue growth of 32.8% is the headline driver, and the forward P/E of 42.2 against a trailing 123.7 says the market expects earnings to catch up sharply as the top line compounds. At a $3.9 billion market cap with no index membership, the name is small enough to be overlooked by passive flows, yet the 0.0% ROE figure in the data needs reconciling against the margins before anyone treats the earnings base as clean. That gap is the first question for a deeper look.