Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a pre-revenue company: Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionNextDecade Corporation Common Stock (NEXT)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$6.60
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $6.29 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
21
out of 100
Analysts
40% buy
5 covering
1-year return
+7.7%
Dividend yield
0.00%
NextDecade Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
NextDecade is a developer of liquefied natural gas export capacity, building the Rio Grande LNG project in south Texas, with the aim of converting pipeline gas into LNG for overseas buyers. Its advantage is location and permitting: the Rio Grande site has federal approvals and a deepwater port position on the Gulf Coast, which are scarce and slow to obtain. The near-term catalysts are construction milestones and long-term sales contracts, since those are what turn a development-stage project into a cash-generating asset. The stock is not yet a profitable business: reported return on equity is -15.8%, and the margin and growth fields in our data are zero or unavailable, so the investment case rests on the project reaching financial close and first LNG. Our composite score is 22 out of 100 and the company is in no major index, so a deeper look should start with the financing terms and contract backlog rather than current earnings.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Heavy negative free cash flow
Free cash flow is -$5.02B against a $1.6B market cap, and debt/equity is 90.8. The balance sheet depends on outside funding to keep building the project.
moderate
No reported revenue or earnings
Revenue and earnings growth both read 0.0%, with margins at zero. There is no operating track record in the data to judge the business on.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest is 15.4% of float. That is a meaningful bet against the stock, which can add volatility in either direction.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-17 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts' mean price target of $8.70 sits 39.0% above the $6.29 share price, implying meaningful upside if the market comes around.
Earnings per share beat expectations by 20.7% in the latest quarter, with a loss of $0.69 against an expected $0.87.
Shares trade at 41.7 times forward earnings, so investors are paying up for expected future profit growth.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last 12 months was negative $5.0B, so the company depends on outside financing to keep building.
Debt to equity of 90.80 leaves common shareholders behind project lenders if construction slips or costs overrun.
The diluted share count rose 1.4% last fiscal year, and further capital raises could dilute existing holders again.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where NEXT's valuation models land
Price
$6.29
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $8.70
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Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
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