Newmont Corporation (NEM) fair value

ACCE thesis

Newmont operates the world's largest gold mining portfolio, producing roughly 6 million ounces annually across assets in the Americas, Australia, and Ghana, plus a 38% stake in Newcrest Mining that adds another 2 million ounces. The company's scale and ore reserve base create a structural cost advantage: all-in sustaining costs of $1,050 per ounce sit well below the current spot price, and the portfolio spans multiple geographies to reduce single-jurisdiction risk. Gold prices have risen 25% over the past 18 months as central banks continue net purchases and real rates remain elevated, driving Newmont's revenue up 15% year-over-year while operating margins expanded to 51.6%. At a forward PE of 11.6x against a 25.9% ROE and 68% gross margin, the stock trades at a material discount to both historical multiples and the earnings power the current gold price environment supports. The Newcrest integration, completed in 2023, is now flowing through to cash generation, with the company positioned to return capital to shareholders as gold prices remain supported by macro tailwinds.