Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps and Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionNational CineMedia Inc. Common Stock (NCMI)
Fair value (4 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$2.20
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $1.89 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
43
out of 100
Analysts
75% buy
4 covering
1-year return
-55.7%
Dividend yield
0.00%
National CineMedia Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
National CineMedia sells advertising inventory on cinema screens and in the lobby, through its National Screen Network and its Fathom Events live-event business, which puts concerts, sports and opera on theatre screens. Its structural edge is the exclusive, long-term contracts it holds with major U.S. theatre circuits, which give it a captive audience that is hard for rivals to replicate. Revenue grew 12.7%, but the operating margin is still negative at -21.9%, and ROE sits at -2.3%, so the business is not yet converting that top-line growth into profit. The forward P/E of 73 leaves little room for error on margin recovery, and the company's sub-$250 million market cap and absence from any major index mean the stock is thinly followed. The thesis is worth a deeper look only if the margin trajectory can be verified against the cost base and theatre attendance trends in the next filings.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Thin profitability and negative ROE
Operating margin is -21.9% and ROE is -2.3%, so the business is not yet earning a return on equity. Net margin of -3.1% confirms losses persist despite 12.7% revenue growth.
moderate
Heavy short interest
Short interest stands at 11.7% of the float, which signals meaningful bearish positioning against the stock. Insiders recorded $0.50M in sales and no buys across the last 10 disclosed transactions.
moderate
Stalled score and weak margin quality
The ACCE score is unchanged at 43 over 90 days, with the margin component at 17/100, the weakest of the four pillars. Free cash flow of $3M is small relative to a $193M market cap.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 12.7% year over year, and the five-year average annual growth rate is 21.9%.
Diluted share count fell 1.8% last fiscal year, so each remaining share claims a slightly larger slice of the business.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin is -3.1% and return on equity is -2.3%, so the company is still losing money on its sales and its equity.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was only $3M, which gives a free cash flow yield of 1.5% at a $1.89 share price.
The forward P/E is 73.0x, and the latest earnings missed expectations by 11.1%, leaving little margin for error.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where NCMI's valuation models land
Price
$1.89
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $3.64
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Analyst consensus
Sales comps
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Quality
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