NCAB Group AB (publ) (NCAB.ST) fair value

ACCE thesis

NCAB Group distributes and value-adds electronic components, mainly connectors, cable assemblies and related interconnect products, sourced from manufacturers and sold to OEMs and contract manufacturers across Europe and beyond. Its edge is the design-in relationship: once an engineer specifies an NCAB-supplied part and the customer's product ships, the revenue tends to recur for the life of that product, and the company's margin structure (35.1% gross, 10.5% operating) reflects the value it adds beyond simple box-moving. The near-term driver is volume recovery and share gains in electronics demand, with revenue growing 25.0% over the last year, a pace that signals the business is winning more than the end market alone would explain. At 52.7x trailing earnings the stock is expensive on backward numbers, but the forward multiple of 33.5x implies earnings are expected to rise sharply, so the question for a PM is whether that earnings step-up is credible at the 18.9% ROE and mid-teens-plus growth the business is already delivering. It is worth a deeper look to test how durable the growth is and whether margins can expand from here, since that is where the valuation case will be won or lost.