3 models fit Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver76
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionNeurocrine Biosciences Inc. Common Stock (NBIX)
Fair value (3 models)
$138
ACCE price target
$179
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST; previously $193 since 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST.
Price used: $143 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
3.6% above
-3.5% to fair value
ACCE score
79
out of 100
Analysts
86% buy
29 covering
P/E
20.7x
forward 14.1x
1-year return
-0.7%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Common Stock in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Neurocrine Biosciences develops and sells neuroscience drugs, with its core franchise built on Ingrezza, a treatment for tardive dyskinesia, and Crenessity, a therapy for congenital adrenal hyperplasia. The company has a durable edge in CNS (central nervous system) commercialization, where specialist prescriber relationships and long-dated patent protection make share hard for competitors to take. Revenue growth of 39.5% is the headline, and the near-term driver is continued uptake of Crenessity alongside Ingrezza's established base, with operating margin at 22.2% and gross margin at 64.5% indicating the mix is shifting toward high-margin product sales. At a trailing P/E of 19.8 against a forward P/E of 11.2, the market is pricing in a steep earnings ramp, so the question for the deeper work is whether that ramp is as durable as the forward multiple implies. With a 22.1% ROE and a 13.7B market cap, the name is worth a closer look on the durability of Crenessity uptake and Ingrezza's exposure to competition and pricing pressure.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
ACCE score decline
Score fell 3 points to 79 over 90 days, driven by momentum (M:61) weakness. Valuation (V:64) also lags, signaling recent market skepticism despite strong fundamentals.
moderate
Insider selling signal
Last 10 disclosures show $0.49M in sales with zero buys. Absence of insider accumulation at current valuations is a mild caution flag, though not severe given strong cash generation.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 16, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-10 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 39.5% year over year with a 24.3% five-year average, showing sustained expansion well above sector norms.
Net margin of 20.9% and ROE of 22.1% demonstrate efficient operations, while consensus values the stock 73.7% above current price.
Why it could disappoint
The reverse DCF implies only 5.8% perpetual cash flow growth, well below historical rates and insufficient to justify current valuation.
Free cash flow yield of 4.4% barely exceeds the 5.2% risk-free rate, offering minimal equity risk premium for biotech concentration risk.
Analyst consensus of 73.7% upside depends on pipeline success, yet the stock already prices in only 5.8% growth, leaving little margin for error.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 2, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where NBIX's valuation models land
Price
$142.70
Model fair value
$138
Model range
$74.20 to $246
Fair value $138
Price $143
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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