4 models fit ArcelorMittal and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver78
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionArcelorMittal (MTS.MC)
Fair value (4 models)
€58.57
ACCE price target
€57.90
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 24 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST; previously €59.63 since 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: €53.30 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
9.0% below
+9.9% to fair value
ACCE score
52
out of 100
P/E
26.6x
forward 11.5x
1-year return
+59.8%
Dividend yield
1.07%
ArcelorMittal in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
ArcelorMittal (MTS.MC) is the world's largest steelmaker by volume, producing flat and long steel products that feed autos, construction and packaging across Europe, the Americas and Asia. Its moat is scale and a substantial integrated footprint, which lets it run blast furnaces where smaller peers depend on scrap-based electric arc furnaces and purchased inputs. The near-term story is the European decarbonisation push, where carbon-border rules and the cost of shifting to lower-emission steelmaking will decide which producers hold margins. At 10.3x forward earnings against a trailing multiple of 28.0x, the market is pricing a sharp earnings recovery, so the question for a deeper look is whether the trough-to-recovery path is credible given cyclical steel pricing. The data here does not include revenue growth or margins, so those numbers need to be pulled before any view on earnings quality is formed.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse year on year
Earnings fell 61.7% YoY while revenue grew 5.2%, so the margin squeeze is severe. Net margin sits at 2.9% and operating margin at 6.3%, leaving little cushion for a cyclical steel business.
moderate
Trailing P/E looks stretched
Trailing P/E of 27.9 against a forward P/E of 11.5 means the market is pricing in a sharp earnings recovery. If that recovery slips, the valuation gap is exposed.
moderate
Weak return on equity
ROE of 3.3% is thin for the capital tied up in the business. Steel is capital-intensive, and returns this low leave little room for error on cost or demand.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 17, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts' mean price target of EUR 59.10 sits 4.1% above the current share price.
The company beat earnings expectations last quarter, reporting EPS of 0.77 against 0.66 expected.
The share count fell 3.2% last fiscal year, so each remaining share owns a slightly bigger slice of the business.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin of 2.9% and return on equity of 3.3% leave little profit from every euro of sales or shareholder money.
Revenue grew 5.2% year over year, but its five-year average is only 2.9% per year, so the recent jump may not last.
Trailing P/E of 27.9x is far above the forward P/E of 11.5x, so the cheap-looking future depends on earnings recovering sharply.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where MTS.MC's valuation models land
Price
€53.30
Model fair value
€58.57
Model range
€18.04 to €74.50
Fair value €58.57
Price €53.30
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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