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MSFT
ACCE-researched

Microsoft Corporation Common Stock (MSFT) fair value

Technology · Software - Infrastructure · NASDAQ · United States
$524.51+0.66%
Market cap $3.89TNext earnings 2026-10-28Updated Oct 23, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 63% above our fair value
Price
$524.51
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$322
Model range
$153 to $512
Fair value $322
Price $525
4 models fit Microsoft Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze57
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionMicrosoft Corporation Common Stock (MSFT)
Fair value (4 models)
$322
ACCE price target
$560
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 08:29 CEST; previously $344 since 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST; previously $585 since 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $525 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
62.8% above
-38.6% to fair value
ACCE score
79
out of 100
Analysts
95% buy
56 covering
P/E
29.2x
forward 22.1x
1-year return
+0.8%
Dividend yield
0.75%

Microsoft Corporation Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Microsoft sells Azure cloud infrastructure, Microsoft 365 productivity software, Windows, LinkedIn and the GitHub and Copilot developer and AI tools, and it earns a 67.9% gross margin on that mix. Its moat is distribution: Azure and Office sit inside the enterprise contracts most large companies already have, which makes AI workloads easy to attach to existing spend. The main near-term driver is AI capacity, with Azure and Copilot monetisation as the test, and revenue growth of 17.7% at a scale of roughly $4 trillion in market value is unusually fast for a company this size. At a forward P/E of 25.1 against a trailing 29.7, the market is pricing in earnings growth without demanding a premium for it, and a 45.1% operating margin and 34.0% ROE suggest that growth is coming with profitability rather than at its expense. The open question for a deeper look is whether AI capex compresses those margins before the Copilot and Azure revenue arrives, since that is where the score and the multiple could diverge.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 23, 2026

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 12, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-12 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Microsoft converts sales into cash well, with $67.0B of free cash flow over the last twelve months.
  • Analysts are almost unanimous, with 55 of 56 rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and a mean target 9.8% above the price.
  • Earnings beat expectations, with earnings per share of 4.74 against 4.21 expected, a 12.6% surprise.
Why it could disappoint
  • The share price implies cash flow growth of 9.1% a year forever, which is a demanding bar.
  • The free cash flow yield is only 0.4%, leaving little cushion if growth slows.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where MSFT's valuation models land
Price
$524.51
Model fair value
$322
Model range
$153 to $512
Fair value $322
Price $525
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish95% buy · 56 covering analysts
● Strong buy 40● Buy 13● Hold 3● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
18 buys · 17 sells
Since Apr 14, 2026, 14 members
Average delay
13 days
From trade to public filing
Full trade list on ProDo politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

Compare MSFT with another stock

MSFT vs NVDAAAPL vs MSFTGOOG vs MSFTAMD vs MSFTASML vs MSFTAVGO vs MSFT

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-0.9%
1 month
+4.8%
3 months
+37.4%
6 months
+23.5%
YTD
+8.5%
1 year
+0.8%

SEC filings

Recent ACCE blog coverage

  • ACCE Smart Money Index 2026: Holdings, Weights, and Outlook
    ACCE Smart Money sits at NAV 1081.69 with MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, V, MA, UBER, and SPOT among its top holdings. Here's what the equal-weight structure reveals.
    2026-08-17

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CESTACCE price target$560$585$521
23 Oct 2026, 08:29 CESTFair value$322$344$521
20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$534
20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTFair value$344$417$534
16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$417$385$534
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$385$390$535
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$585$499$535
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$390$395$494
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$395$385$498
17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$385$389$497

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth88Value43Quality100Momentum83Total79
Valuation
Trailing P/E
29.2x
Forward P/E
22.1x
PEG
0.94
P/B
8.36x
EV / Revenue
11.1x
Book value/sh
$59.56
Enterprise value
$3.70T
Profitability
ROE
34.0%
FCF yield
1.69%
ROIC
19.2%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.29
Dividend yield
0.75%
Beta
1.10

Member of

ACCE Smart MoneyACCE AI Infrastructure

Price

+0.2% · 1Y

Ask anything about MSFT

Answered from Microsoft Corporation Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 80% of peers
low 19.8x29.2xhigh 5151.4x
ROEbetter than 50% of peers
low -14%34%high 117%
Div yieldbetter than 83% of peers
low 0.0%0.8%high 1.6%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
MSFT Microsoft Corporation Common Stock$524.51$32263% above29.2x34.0%10079
PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. Class A Common Stock$196.19--169.1x38.1%10073
ORCL Oracle Corporation Common Stock$125.54$13910% below19.8x41.2%8259
PANW Palo Alto Networks Inc. Common Stock$354.92--951.4x1.7%5968
CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. Class A Common Stock$237.94--5151.4x1.5%5061
FTNT Fortinet Inc. Common Stock$172.98$79118% above63.6x117.4%9173
NET Cloudflare Inc. Class A Common Stock$303.61----14.4%3351

Sector report card

Where MSFT ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
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9 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 21
ProxyProxy statementPeriod 2026-12-08
View on SEC →
Oct 15
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-15
View on SEC →
Oct 14
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-13
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR