2 models fit Markel Group Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as an insurer: Residual income, P/E comparison, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionMarkel Group Inc. Common Stock (MKL)
Fair value (2 models)
$1561
ACCE price target
$1780
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST; previously $1523 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST.
Price used: $1870 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
19.8% above
-16.5% to fair value
ACCE score
71
out of 100
Analysts
14% buy
7 covering
P/E
10.3x
forward 15.2x
1-year return
-1.4%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Markel Group Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Markel Group writes specialty commercial insurance (excess and surplus lines, programs, and reinsurance) and owns a portfolio of operating businesses, including Markel Ventures, plus a large equity investment book inherited from its history as a Berkshire-style holding company. The core edge is underwriting discipline in niche property and casualty lines, where pricing power and specialist expertise let it earn returns that generalist carriers often miss. Revenue grew 12.7% and the operating margin is 30.1%, which is strong for a P&C insurer, while the trailing P/E of 9.9 sits well below the forward P/E of 15.9, a gap that suggests earnings were depressed in the recent base period and the market is pricing a recovery. The stock looks cheap on trailing earnings but not on forward estimates, so the question for a PM is whether the 12.5% ROE can rise as the insurance cycle and the investment book normalize. It is worth a deeper look for the underwriting track record and the sensitivity of earnings to catastrophe losses and reserve development, which the data here does not capture.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Moat score deterioration
M score of 40 is weak for a $21.8B insurer. Competitive advantages unclear despite strong recent earnings growth and 12.7% revenue expansion.
moderate
Earnings growth sustainability risk
YoY earnings up 86.8% but forward P/E of 15.2 vs trailing 9.7 suggests market expects significant deceleration. Verify if driven by underwriting or investment gains.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Markel trades at 9.7x trailing P/E with 11.7% free cash flow yield, well below sector median forward P/E of 11.9x.
Revenue grew 12.7% year over year and 11.5% on a 5-year average, demonstrating consistent top-line expansion.
The company generated 2.6 billion dollars in free cash flow while reducing share count 2.4% and maintaining conservative 0.23 debt to equity.
Why it could disappoint
Latest earnings missed expectations by 34.8%, signaling deterioration in underlying business performance or portfolio marks.
Forward P/E of 15.2x exceeds sector median of 11.9x, and consensus fair value sits 13.5% below current price.
No analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and ROIC of 7.5% lags the cost of capital for a financial services conglomerate.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where MKL's valuation models land
Price
$1870.09
Model fair value
$1561
Model range
$1154 to $1909
Fair value $1561
Price $1870
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
P/E comparison
Residual income
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Quality
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