Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
22.7% below
+29.4% to fair value
ACCE score
57
out of 100
Analysts
82% buy
11 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 14.6x
1-year return
+5.5%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Middleby Corporation (The) Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Middleby makes commercial foodservice equipment, including ovens, fryers, grills and refrigeration sold under brands such as Garland, Viking and Frymaster, and it also owns a food processing equipment business. The moat is less about any single product than about installed base and specification: restaurant chains standardize on particular equipment, which makes replacement cycles sticky and gives the company a distribution footprint that smaller competitors struggle to match. Revenue is growing 9.9%, with a gross margin of 38.4% and an operating margin of 17.4%, which is solid for a machinery maker and suggests the portfolio is mostly pricing well rather than competing on cost. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 14.6, a modest multiple for a business still compounding top-line growth at near double digits. The score of 50/100 and the 11.0% ROE mean the quality case is not yet clear-cut, so this merits a deeper look at margin durability and how much of the growth is organic versus acquired.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse
EPS down 39.3% YoY despite 9.9% revenue growth. Net margin deeply negative at -13.9%, signalling operational distress or one-time charges masking underlying weakness.
high
Score deterioration
ACCE score fell 12 points in 90 days (62 to 50). Quality and Momentum components weakest (51, 41), indicating recent momentum loss and operational headwinds.
moderate
Long-term revenue decline
5-year revenue CAGR of -7.4% shows structural headwinds despite recent quarterly recovery (+4.2% QoQ). Suggests cyclical trough rather than sustainable turnaround.
moderate
Elevated leverage
Debt/Equity ratio of 0.91 is material. Combined with earnings volatility and negative net margins, limits financial flexibility if operational pressure persists.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow yield of 12.6% suggests the stock is deeply undervalued relative to cash generation.
Recent earnings beat expectations by 3.1% and analyst consensus rates 82% of coverage as Buy or Strong Buy.
Management reduced share count by 4.7% last year while generating $604M in free cash flow.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin of negative 13.9% means the company lost money on each dollar of sales last quarter.
Five year revenue declined 7.4% annually on average, despite current year growth of 9.9%.
Return on invested capital of negative 4.6% shows the company destroys value despite positive ROE of 11.0%.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where MIDD's valuation models land
Price
$113.05
Model fair value
$146
Model range
$133 to $160
Fair value $146
Price $113
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores