Meta Platforms Inc. Class A Common Stock (META) fair value
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information · NASDAQ · United States
$642.62-0.96%
Market cap $1.65TNext earnings 2026-10-21Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 23% above our fair value
Price
$642.62
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$524
Model range
$320 to $783
Fair value $524
Price $643
3 models fit Meta Platforms Inc. Class A Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Bronze54
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionMeta Platforms Inc. Class A Common Stock (META)
Fair value (3 models)
$524
ACCE price target
$796
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST; previously $538 since 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $760 since 19 Apr 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $643 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
22.8% above
-18.5% to fair value
ACCE score
63
out of 100
Analysts
87% buy
63 covering
P/E
22.1x
forward 22.1x
1-year return
-12.4%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Meta Platforms Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Meta runs Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, and monetises them almost entirely through targeted advertising, with Reality Labs (Quest headsets and the Ray-Ban smart glasses) as a loss-making bet on the next platform. The moat is scale: more than three billion daily users feeding ad-ranking models that few rivals can match, and an 81.7% gross margin that shows how little it costs to serve each additional impression. The near-term driver is AI-driven ad ranking and ad-creation tools, which have lifted conversion and pricing and are the main reason revenue growth has re-accelerated to 28.0%. At a 22.1x forward P/E and a 34.8% operating margin, the stock is not cheap against its own history, but it is priced for a level of growth that the current revenue run-rate can support. The open question is whether Reality Labs losses and capex for AI infrastructure compress that operating margin before the ad engine's growth slows, which is worth testing in the quarterly margin trend rather than assumed away.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Earnings growth negative
Revenue grew 28.0% year on year, yet earnings fell 13.4%, so profit is not keeping pace with sales. The 45.6% EPS beat in Q4 2026 does not offset the year-on-year decline.
moderate
Score down eight points
The ACCE score fell from 71 to 63 over 90 days, with Growth at 52 and Margin at 49 the weaker components. Quality at 96 remains strong.
moderate
Insider selling, no buying
Insiders sold $8.21M across the last 10 disclosed transactions and bought nothing. Insider ownership is only 0.1%, so the signal is modest.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 24, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-23 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 28.0% year over year, well above its 18.5% five-year average, showing the business is accelerating.
Free cash flow of $46.1B over the last twelve months, with a net margin of 29.8%, gives the company plenty of financial firepower.
Analysts rating Buy or Strong Buy make up 87% (55 of 63), and their mean price target sits 27.3% above the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 22.8% above the model fair value of $523.51, and all three valuation models point to a price below the current share price.
The price implies cash flow growth of 4.6% a year forever, a bar that looks demanding given that the 5.1% risk-free rate used in the DCF is higher.
Earnings per share beat expectations by 45.6%, but the forward P/E of 18.5x still sits above the sector median of 16.8x, so the premium is already priced in.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where META's valuation models land
Price
$642.62
Model fair value
$524
Model range
$320 to $783
Fair value $524
Price $643
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores