Mobotix AG (MBQ.DE) fair value

ACCE thesis

Mobotix AG designs and sells IP video surveillance cameras and the software that runs them, selling through integrators and channel partners in Europe and beyond. The attraction is a 51.1% gross margin, which points to a differentiated hardware and software stack rather than commodity camera assembly. The problem is that revenue fell 14.5% and the operating margin is negative at -7.2%, so the business is currently shrinking and losing money on an operating basis. The forward P/E of 7.7 against a trailing 25.6 implies the market expects earnings to recover sharply, which makes the gap between those two multiples the central question for a deeper look. With a market cap of about 10M EUR and no index membership, the name is thinly followed, so any work here should start by checking whether the revenue decline is cyclical project timing or lost share.