Industrials · Staffing & Employment Services · NYSE · United States
$47.53+2.00%
Market cap $2.2BNext earnings 2026-10-15Updated Oct 18, 2026
Our verdict
Close to our fair value
Price
$47.53
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$46.30
Model range
$19.05 to $84.69
Fair value $46.30
Price $47.53
3 models fit ManpowerGroup Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver72
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionManpowerGroup Common Stock (MAN)
Fair value (3 models)
$46.30
ACCE price target
$46.00
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 15:05 CEST; previously $61.16 since 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 19 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $53.60 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 15:05 CEST.
Price used: $47.53 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
2.7% above
-2.6% to fair value
ACCE score
66
out of 100
Analysts
33% buy
12 covering
P/E
18.8x
forward 10.2x
1-year return
+41.3%
Dividend yield
3.09%
ManpowerGroup Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
ManpowerGroup places temporary and permanent staff across more than 75 countries through its Manpower, Experis (professional and IT contracting), and Talent Solutions brands. The case rests on scale and mix: Experis carries higher-margin technology and professional placements, and the company's global footprint lets it serve multinational clients that smaller agencies cannot. Revenue is growing 7.5 percent, but operating margin is only 2.4 percent and ROE is 5.1 percent, so the business is thin-margin and the returns are modest. At 11.8 times forward earnings against a trailing 17.3, the market is pricing in a recovery in earnings, which makes margin trajectory in the next few reporting periods the thing to test before going further.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse
Earnings are down 58.2% year over year while revenue grew 7.5%, so profit is shrinking even as sales rise. Net margin is just 0.6% and operating margin 2.4%.
high
Negative free cash flow
Free cash flow is -$161.4M against a $2.0B market cap, with debt-to-equity at 1.16. The business is consuming cash while carrying meaningful leverage.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest stands at 13.1% of float, which signals that a sizeable group of investors is betting against the stock.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 17, 2026 · figures from 2026-09-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Shares trade at 11.8x forward earnings, well below the sector median of 23.8x, leaving room for a rerating if profits recover.
Revenue grew 7.5% year over year, and the company cut its diluted share count by 3.5% in the last fiscal year.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$161M, and the free cash flow yield is -6.7%.
Net margin is just 0.6% and return on invested capital is -0.2%, so the business earns little on the money it uses.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where MAN's valuation models land
Price
$47.53
Model fair value
$46.30
Model range
$19.05 to $84.69
Fair value $46.30
Price $47.53
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores