LULU
ACCE-researchedOverview
ACCE thesis
Lululemon designs and sells premium technical apparel-leggings, sports bras, and outerwear-through 700+ company-operated stores and a direct digital channel that collectively generate 40%+ of sales without a wholesale intermediary, protecting both margin and brand equity. That direct model, combined with a loyal "guest" base and community-driven marketing, has historically insulated LULU from the commoditization that eats competitors in the activewear space. The near-term story hinges on international recovery, particularly China, where the brand is still in early penetration relative to North American maturity. The problem is the domestic business: U.S. comparable sales have stalled, product missteps in women's core hurt 2024, and the market has already repriced this from a 40x growth stock to a 9x earnings story-a compression that reflects real execution risk, not just sentiment. At $13B market cap and 32% ROE, the math works if management stabilizes North America and China scales, but this is a show-me situation, not a trust-the-brand situation.
- highEarnings collapse YoYEarnings down 35% YoY despite 4.3% revenue growth signals significant cost pressure or one-time charges compressing net income severely.
- highSevere revenue deceleration5-year CAGR of 33.9% vs current 4.3% YoY growth represents a dramatic slowdown, suggesting saturation or competitive pressure.
- moderateWeak momentum scoreACCE Momentum score of 17/100 indicates poor price trend; stock down significantly from highs, consistent with $119 vs $138 fair value.
- moderateElevated short interestShort interest at 9.1% reflects meaningful bearish conviction among institutional traders, above typical retail apparel peers.
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Price
Valuation
INVESTORSix independent models converge on one confidence-weighted fair value, with full methodology and editable assumptions.
- +All six models: DCF, P/E and EV/EBITDA comps, Graham, dividend discount, residual income
- +Scenario bands, sensitivity tornado, and the 5-year historical valuation range
- +Editable DCF workbench with saved scenarios
Quality
INVESTORThe full quality picture: conviction breakdown, earnings quality, score history, and backtested returns.
- +Conviction score breakdown and earnings-quality grade
- +Growth / value / quality / momentum component scores
- +90-day score history and score-threshold backtests
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
- +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
- +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
- +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PROFollow the institutions: 13F position changes, insider trades, and active 13D activist filings.
- +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
- +Recent open-market insider transactions
- +Active 13D activist filings and top holders
Compare
Where it sits vs peers
Algorithmic peers (6)
| Ticker | Company | Mcap | P/E | ROE | D/E | Yield | Quality | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATZ.TO | Aritzia Inc. | $10.1B | 32.2 | 35.9% | 0.08 | 0.0% | - | Compare |
| BURL | Burlington Stores Inc. Common Stock | $14.9B | 21.5 | 41.4% | 1.15 | 0.0% | - | Compare |
| TRENT.NS | Trent Limited | $15.7B | 83.3 | 27.1% | 36.03 | 0.1% | - | Compare |
| GAP | Gap Inc. (The) Common Stock | $7.2B | 6.3 | 33.8% | 0.56 | 3.3% | - | Compare |
| URBN | Urban Outfitters Inc. Common Stock | $6.4B | 11.9 | 20.9% | 0.08 | 0.0% | - | Compare |
| ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch Company Common Stock | $5.8B | 12.0 | 40.6% | 0.17 | 0.0% | - | Compare |
Sector report card
Where LULU ranks against its sector peers on each metric.
News and Record
Press releases mentioning this company
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