BURL
ACCE-researchedOverview
ACCE thesis
Burlington operates 900+ off-price apparel and home goods stores, buying excess inventory from manufacturers at steep discounts and selling name brands at 20-60% below traditional retail prices. The company's treasure hunt shopping model creates customer loyalty while maintaining structural cost advantages over department stores through lower real estate costs and minimal advertising spend. Management targets 2,000 total locations by 2030, with new stores generating consistent 20%+ returns on invested capital even in today's challenging retail environment. Same-store sales accelerated to 5.1% in Q3 2024 after two quarters of modest growth, driven by improved inventory management and market share gains from department store closures. Trading at 21.7x forward earnings despite delivering 38.4% ROE, the multiple compresses as Burlington executes its store expansion while maintaining margin discipline.
- highSequential revenue collapseQoQ revenue declined 21.7% despite YoY growth of 11.0%, signalling sharp seasonal or demand deceleration. Requires clarification on Q4 guidance.
- highInsider selling pressureLast 10 disclosures show $13.07M in insider sales, zero buys. Suggests insiders lack conviction despite strong recent earnings beat.
- moderateACCE score deteriorationScore fell 7 points in 90 days (63 to 56). Momentum subscore of 25/100 is particularly weak, indicating negative trend signals.
- moderateLeverage elevated for cyclicalDebt/Equity of 1.15 is material for apparel retail. In a consumer downturn, debt service could constrain flexibility; FCF of $172M provides some cushion but warrants monitoring.
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Price
Valuation
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Analysts
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Smart Money
PROFollow the institutions: 13F position changes, insider trades, and active 13D activist filings.
- +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
- +Recent open-market insider transactions
- +Active 13D activist filings and top holders
Compare
Where it sits vs peers
Algorithmic peers (6)
| Ticker | Company | Mcap | P/E | ROE | D/E | Yield | Quality | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRENT.NS | Trent Limited | $15.7B | 83.3 | 27.1% | 36.03 | 0.1% | - | Compare |
| LULU | lululemon athletica inc. Common Stock | $10.9B | 8.1 | 30.9% | 0.06 | 0.0% | - | Compare |
| NXT.L | NEXT plc | $21.6B | 18.1 | 54.5% | 0.49 | 1.9% | - | Compare |
| ATZ.TO | Aritzia Inc. | $10.1B | 32.2 | 35.9% | 0.08 | 0.0% | - | Compare |
| GAP | Gap Inc. (The) Common Stock | $7.2B | 6.3 | 33.8% | 0.56 | 3.3% | - | Compare |
| URBN | Urban Outfitters Inc. Common Stock | $6.4B | 11.9 | 20.9% | 0.08 | 0.0% | - | Compare |
Sector report card
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News and Record
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