Lockheed Martin Corporation Common Stock (LMT) fair value
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense · NYSE · United States
$604.18+2.42%
Market cap $139.6BNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 33% above our fair value
Price
$604.18
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$454
Model range
$359 to $659
Fair value $454
Price $604
3 models fit Lockheed Martin Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Silver71
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionLockheed Martin Corporation Common Stock (LMT)
Fair value (3 models)
$454
ACCE price target
$556
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $492 since 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $666 since 19 Apr 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST.
Price used: $604 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
33.0% above
-24.8% to fair value
ACCE score
68
out of 100
Analysts
43% buy
23 covering
P/E
21.5x
forward 18.3x
1-year return
+23.8%
Dividend yield
2.44%
Lockheed Martin Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Lockheed Martin makes the F-35 Lightning II fighter, the PAC-3 missile interceptor, Sikorsky helicopters and the Trident II submarine-launched missile, and it sells most of that to the US government. The moat is in the programs themselves: the F-35 is installed across dozens of allied air forces, which locks in sustainment and upgrade revenue for decades after the initial sale. Revenue growth of 10.5% is running well ahead of what a mature prime would normally post, and the forward P/E of 16.2 sits below the trailing 20.3, which implies earnings are expected to rise. The reported ROE of 89.2% is inflated by a small equity base after years of buybacks, so it should not be read as a measure of capital efficiency. A 12.0% operating margin is thin and leaves little room for fixed-price program charges, which have hit this company before, so the first thing to check is whether the margin holds as PAC-3 and F-35 production ramps. The score of 58/100 says the name is worth a closer look, not a conclusion.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings spike not sustainable
YoY earnings +443.8% vs revenue +10.5% signals one-time gains or accounting items. 5-year revenue CAGR of only 2.8% suggests structural growth is modest.
high
Leverage elevated for cyclical sector
Debt/Equity 3.23 is high for aerospace & defense. Defense budgets are discretionary; downturn could stress debt service despite current $6.9B FCF.
moderate
Quality score lagging valuation
ACCE Quality subscore 52/100 is weak relative to P/E 18.8 and forward P/E 16.2.
moderate
Insider selling, no buying
Last 10 disclosures show $10.06M in sales and $0 in buys. Modest but one-directional signal during a 13-point score rally.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Recent earnings beat by 10.0% and revenue growth of 10.5% year-over-year show operational momentum.
Why it could disappoint
Debt to equity of 3.23 leaves limited financial flexibility if refinancing costs rise materially.
Five-year average revenue growth of only 2.8% per year suggests the 10.5% recent growth may not sustain.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where LMT's valuation models land
Price
$604.18
Model fair value
$454
Model range
$359 to $659
Fair value $454
Price $604
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
The ACCE Defense & Aerospace index NAV sits at 993.22 with GD, LHX, NOC, RTX, and LMT each holding 15-17% weight. Here's what the structure signals for 2026.
ACCE Defense & Aerospace index sits at NAV 982.02 with GD, HII, NOC, LHX, LMT, and RTX each holding 14-17% weights. Here's what drives the construction.
The six defense primes behind 94% of our Defense and Aerospace index, including LMT, RTX, NOC and GD, ranked on fundamentals as the FY2026 budget tops $900B.
2026-05-25
Recommendation history, last 12 months
Date
Type
New
Previous
Price
23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST
Fair value
$454
$492
$590
19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST
Rating
Overvalued
first publication
$552
19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST
Fair value
$492
$503
$552
16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
ACCE price target
$556
$666
$533
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$503
$474
$510
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$474
$482
$520
23 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$482
$477
$535
14 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$477
$490
$524
5 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$490
$501
$533
2 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$501
$507
$561
Price
+24.5% · 1Y
Ask anything about LMT
Answered from Lockheed Martin Corporation Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.