Financial Services · Financial Conglomerates · NYSE · United States
$36.36-2.47%
Market cap $2.1BNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 24% below our fair value
Price
$36.36
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$47.71
Model range
$22.81 to $88.70
Fair value $47.71
Price $36.36
5 models fit Hilltop Holdings Inc. and they disagree: 2 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Bronze53
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionHilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH)
Fair value (5 models)
$47.71
ACCE price target
$36.40
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $47.01 since 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST.
Price used: $36.36 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
23.8% below
+31.2% to fair value
ACCE score
56
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
4 covering
P/E
13.5x
forward 14.9x
1-year return
+12.1%
Dividend yield
2.15%
Hilltop Holdings Inc. in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Hilltop Holdings is a Texas bank holding company whose business runs through PlainsCapital Bank, a commercial and residential lender, alongside a broker-dealer and a mortgage origination unit that sells loans into the secondary market. Its edge is a conservative balance sheet and a deep base of Texas commercial relationships, which has kept earnings steadier through rate cycles than many regional peers. The near-term swing factor is net interest margin: as deposit costs stabilise, the spread on its loan book should widen, and the mortgage unit benefits if refinancing activity recovers. At 13.7 times trailing earnings and 13.5 times forward, the stock trades at a modest multiple against revenue growth of 5.2% and an operating margin of 15.8%, but a 7.6% return on equity is thin for a bank and explains much of the discount. The case rests on whether margins recover enough to lift returns toward the level that would justify a re-rating.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Negative free cash flow
Free cash flow is -$95.1M against a $2.1B market cap. Banks' FCF is often distorted by loan growth, so check whether the cash burn reflects operations or balance sheet activity.
moderate
Five-year revenue decline
Revenue has shrunk at a 5-year CAGR of -5.5%, even though the latest year shows +5.2% YoY growth. One good year does not reverse the longer trend.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Hilltop's consensus fair value of $48.67 sits 33.0% above the $36.59 share price, and all five valuation models in the consensus point the same way.
The company beat its latest earnings estimate by 50.0%, reporting $0.63 per share against $0.42 expected.
Revenue grew 5.2% year over year, and the share count fell 3.6% over the last fiscal year, which helps per-share value.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last 12 months was negative at -$95M, and the yield on the share price is -4.6%.
Return on equity of 7.6% and return on invested capital of 4.4% are thin returns on the capital the business uses.
Revenue grew 5.2% last year but averaged -5.5% a year over five years, so the recent gain may not last.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where HTH's valuation models land
Price
$36.36
Model fair value
$47.71
Model range
$22.81 to $88.70
Fair value $47.71
Price $36.36
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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RILYLBRC Group Holdings Inc. Depositary Shares each representing 1/1000th in a share of 7.375% Series B Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock par value $0.0001