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HTFL

Heartflow Inc. Common Stock (HTFL) fair value

Healthcare · Health Information Services · NASDAQ · United States
$56.71+2.31%
Market cap $4.8BNext earnings 2026-11-12Updated Oct 24, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 76% above our fair value
Price
$56.71
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $32.19
Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps and Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionHeartflow Inc. Common Stock (HTFL)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$40.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $56.71 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
55
out of 100
Analysts
80% buy
10 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 0.0x
1-year return
+42.1%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Heartflow Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Heartflow sells AI-driven cardiac imaging software, including its FFRct and plaque analysis products, which turn standard CT scans into non-invasive estimates of blood flow and coronary disease. Its 80.1% gross margin reflects the software economics, and revenue growth of 47.6% shows demand is compounding faster than most of healthcare. The company is still loss-making, with an operating margin of -27.9% and a return on equity of -154.2%, so the investment case rests on operating leverage arriving before the cash runs short. At a $4.4B market cap with no index membership yet, the stock is a candidate for a deeper look, with the reimbursement trajectory and the path to positive operating margin as the questions to resolve.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Heavy insider selling
    Insiders sold $66.84M of stock across the last 10 disclosed transactions and bought nothing, against a 4.9% insider stake.
  • high
    Price well above ACCE target
    Shares at $56.71 trade 41.8% above the ACCE price target of $40.00, so the stock already prices in more than our model gives credit for.
  • moderate
    Operating losses persist
    Operating margin is -27.9% and net margin -55.8%, with free cash flow of -$59.0M, so growth of 47.6% is not yet converting to cash.
  • moderate
    Elevated short interest
    Short interest stands at 11.3% of float, meaning a sizeable group is betting against the shares.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 24, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 47.6% year over year, and the five-year average growth rate is 42.1% per year.
  • Eight of ten analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and the company beat its latest earnings estimate by 27.3%.
  • Debt is small relative to equity, with debt to equity at 0.07.
Why it could disappoint
  • Net margin is -55.8% and return on equity is -154.2%, so the business is losing a lot of money on its sales.
  • Free cash flow over the last twelve months was -$59M, and the free cash flow yield is -1.2%.
  • The diluted share count rose 35.2% last fiscal year, so each share now represents a smaller slice of the company.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 12, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where HTFL's valuation models land
Price
$56.71
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $32.19
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
Sales comps
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish80% buy · 10 covering analysts
● Strong buy 6● Buy 2● Hold 2● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+17.4%
1 month
+19.7%
3 months
+135.1%
6 months
+86.3%
YTD
+94.5%
1 year
+42.1%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$40.00first publication$49.74

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth64Value10Quality47Momentum97Total55
Valuation
Trailing P/E
0.0x
Forward P/E
0.0x
PEG
no data
P/B
14.74x
EV / Revenue
18.8x
Book value/sh
$3.23
Enterprise value
$4.0B
Profitability
ROE
-154.2%
FCF yield
-1.23%
ROIC
-29.7%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.07
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
no data

Price

+49.7% · 1Y

Ask anything about HTFL

Answered from Heartflow Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 0.0x0.0xhigh 109.0x
ROEbetter than 0% of peers
low -154%-154%high 30%
Div yieldbetter than 83% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 1.1%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
HTFL Heartflow Inc. Common Stock$56.71----154.2%4755
WAY Waystar Holding Corp. Common Stock$28.85$2421% above41.4x3.8%6667
DOCS Doximity Inc. Class A Common Stock$33.39$2916% above39.6x17.2%8657
PRVA Privia Health Group Inc. Common Stock$22.41$1639% above109.0x4.3%3453
2413.T M3, Inc.¥1900.50--28.2x12.0%7456
HQY HealthEquity Inc. Common Stock$103.97$8522% above35.3x11.4%7866
HNGE Hinge Health Inc. Class A Common Stock$111.52$16332% below36.3x30.4%9370

Sector report card

Where HTFL ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • GlobeNewswire•Aug 28, 2026
    Late Breaking Data from Independent Government-Funded Trial at ESC Shows Heartflow FFRCT Analysis Reduces Unnecessary Invasive Heart Procedures by Nearly Half
  • GlobeNewswire•Aug 27, 2026
    Heartflow to Participate in the Wells Fargo 21st Annual Healthcare Conference
  • GlobeNewswire•Jul 23, 2026
    Heartflow to Report Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on August 13, 2026
2 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 14
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-12
View on SEC →
September 2026
Sep 21
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-18
View on SEC →
Sep 18
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-17
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR