Honeywell International Inc. Common Stock (HON) fair value
Industrials · Conglomerates · NASDAQ · United States
$221.15+1.30%
Market cap $70.1BNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 33% above our fair value
Price
$221.15
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$166
Model range
$121 to $228
Fair value $166
Price $221
4 models fit Honeywell International Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Bronze58
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionHoneywell International Inc. Common Stock (HON)
Fair value (4 models)
$166
ACCE price target
$225
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $175 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $195 since 19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $221 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
33.5% above
-25.1% to fair value
ACCE score
66
out of 100
Analysts
58% buy
24 covering
P/E
11.0x
forward 22.5x
1-year return
+1.4%
Dividend yield
1.28%
Honeywell International Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Honeywell manufactures aerospace components, building controls systems, and industrial automation software, with roughly 40% of revenue from defense and commercial aviation. The company benefits from a structural tailwind in defense spending and a multi-year backlog in commercial aerospace that extends visibility into 2027. Near-term growth hinges on converting that backlog into revenue as production rates normalize post-supply-chain disruption, alongside margin expansion from operational leverage. The stock trades at a forward PE of 22.2 despite an ROE of 46.6% and operating margins of 20.3%, suggesting the market has priced in significant execution risk or slower-than-expected backlog conversion. At a 7.7 trailing PE, the valuation disconnect warrants investigation into whether the company can sustain current profitability or if near-term headwinds are being underappreciated.
Debt/Equity 2.24 is high for industrials. Combined with slowing revenue growth (5y CAGR 2.8%), limits financial flexibility.
moderate
Insider selling pressure
Last 10 disclosures show $4.23M in sales, zero buys. Insiders exiting while stock trades above fair value estimate.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-09 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Honeywell generates exceptional returns on equity of 46.6% while maintaining a net margin of 21.6%, demonstrating pricing power and operational excellence.
The stock trades at 7.7x trailing P/E with a 4.5% dividend yield and 8.2% free cash flow yield, offering compelling value.
Honeywell beat earnings expectations by 8.3% and repurchased 1.9% of shares last year while generating 5.4B in free cash flow.
Why it could disappoint
Consensus fair value is 16.5% below the current share price of 207.73, with all 5 valuation models agreeing the stock is overvalued.
Forward P/E of 22.2x exceeds the sector median of 23.7x, and the implied 5-year cash flow growth of 3.6% barely exceeds the risk-free rate of 5.2%.
Revenue growth of 4.3% year over year lags the 5-year average of 2.8%, while debt to equity of 2.24 constrains financial flexibility.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Walk me through this stock
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where HON's valuation models land
Price
$221.15
Model fair value
$166
Model range
$121 to $228
Fair value $166
Price $221
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
Honeywell posted EPS of $4.90 for the quarter reported on April 23, 2026, down 2.4% year over year, while revenue grew 2.4%. ACCE score sits at 52/100.
2026-07-23
Recommendation history, last 12 months
Date
Type
New
Previous
Price
23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST
Fair value
$166
$175
$218
23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST
ACCE price target
$225
$195
$218
18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST
Rating
Overvalued
first publication
$211
14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$175
$173
$210
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$173
$178
$207
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$178
$180
$213
25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$180
$177
$213
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
ACCE price target
$195
first publication
$206
14 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$177
$180
$202
4 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$180
$184
$206
Price
+3.5% · 1Y
Ask anything about HON
Answered from Honeywell International Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.