3 models fit Hillman Solutions Corp. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionHillman Solutions Corp. Common Stock (HLMN)
Fair value (3 models)
$10.16
ACCE price target
$8.20
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 15:04 CEST; previously $8.78 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 15:04 CEST.
Price used: $7.20 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
29.1% below
+41.1% to fair value
ACCE score
51
out of 100
Analysts
75% buy
8 covering
P/E
36.8x
forward 9.4x
1-year return
-23.8%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Hillman Solutions Corp. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Hillman Solutions distributes and makes fasteners, hardware, keys, and security products sold mainly through big-box retailers and independent hardware dealers across North America. Its moat is less about proprietary products than about shelf access and distribution scale, which are hard for a new entrant to replicate quickly. Revenue grew 9.8% recently with a 48.0% gross margin, but operating margin is thin at 8.3% and ROE of 3.4% shows little return on the equity base. The trailing P/E of 36.3 sits well above the forward P/E of 9.4, so the earnings recovery the market is pricing in is the key question. That gap is worth a deeper look to see whether margin repair is real or just a forecast the group has yet to deliver.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Thin free cash flow cover
Free cash flow of $35M against a $1.4B market cap is a modest yield, and debt to equity of 0.67 leaves less room if earnings growth of 34.8% stalls.
moderate
Low profitability and return on equity
Return on equity of 3.4% and net margin of 2.6% are thin for a business with a 48.0% gross margin, so most of the gross profit is absorbed by operating costs and interest.
moderate
Weak five-year revenue growth
Five-year revenue CAGR of 2.6% sits well behind the recent 9.8% year-on-year gain, so the latest acceleration has not yet shown up as a durable trend.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 9.8% year over year, well above the 2.6% average annual growth over five years.
Trailing free cash flow reached $35M over the last twelve months, and the stock trades at a 2.4% free cash flow yield.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin is only 2.6%, and return on invested capital of 1.6% is thin for the capital tied up in the business.
Forward P/E of 9.4x is far below the sector median of 23.8x, yet trailing P/E is 36.9x, so earnings are unreliable.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 2, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where HLMN's valuation models land
Price
$7.20
Model fair value
$10.16
Model range
$4.60 to $13.72
Fair value $10.16
Price $7.20
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
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