Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as an insurer: Residual income and P/E comparison.
ACCE opinionHagerty Inc. Class A Common Stock (HGTY)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$14.80
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $15.58 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
60
out of 100
Analysts
44% buy
9 covering
P/E
141.6x
forward 26.6x
1-year return
+39.4%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Hagerty Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Hagerty insures classic and collector vehicles through its Hagerty Insurance unit and runs the Hagerty Marketplace and valuation guide, which feeds a membership base that pays recurring fees on top of the policies. The moat is the data and the community: a claims book built on specialty vehicles that generalist carriers avoid, plus an owner base that keeps renewing. Revenue fell 6.5% over the latest period, so the near-term case rests on margin and earnings rather than top-line growth. Trailing P/E is 139.1 against a forward P/E of 24.0, which means the market is paying for a sharp earnings recovery that has not yet shown up in reported numbers. With an 18.4% operating margin and a 56.8% gross margin, the business is profitable, but the 8.9% ROE says the balance sheet is not yet earning much on equity, so the question for a deeper look is whether the forward earnings estimate is credible.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Insider selling heavy
Last 10 disclosed insider transactions total $122.32M in sales against only $0.10M in buys, a strongly one-sided signal from the people closest to the business.
moderate
Revenue shrinking year over year
Revenue fell 6.5% YoY even though the 5y revenue CAGR is 23.9%, so the recent top line is moving the wrong way.
moderate
Stock trades above ACCE target
At $15.58 the price sits 5.3% above the ACCE price target of $14.80, with the P/E of 139.1 leaving little room for error.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $194M, a sign the business generates real cash despite thin accounting profits.
Revenue grew 23.9% a year on average over five years, showing the business has expanded strongly over a long stretch.
Latest earnings beat expectations by 75.0%, with a loss of $0.02 per share against $0.08 expected.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 6.5% year over year, so the recent trend is moving the wrong way after years of growth.
The stock trades at 24.0x forward earnings against a sector median of 11.7x, a steep premium for a shrinking top line.
Shares outstanding rose 292.0% in the last fiscal year, heavily diluting existing holders' stakes in the company.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where HGTY's valuation models land
Price
$15.58
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $0.50
Model
Fair value
Upside
P/E comparison
Residual income
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Quality
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