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HCA
ACCE-researched

HCA Healthcare Inc. Common Stock (HCA) fair value

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities · NYSE · United States
$469.03+0.37%
Market cap $104.0BNext earnings 2026-10-27Updated Oct 18, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 12% below our fair value
Price
$469.03
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$532
Model range
$359 to $716
Fair value $532
Price $469
3 models fit HCA Healthcare Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Gold82
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionHCA Healthcare Inc. Common Stock (HCA)
Fair value (3 models)
$532
ACCE price target
$480
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $469 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
11.8% below
+13.4% to fair value
ACCE score
66
out of 100
Analysts
58% buy
26 covering
P/E
15.7x
forward 14.7x
1-year return
+6.6%
Dividend yield
0.67%

HCA Healthcare Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

HCA operates 186 hospitals and roughly 2,400 outpatient facilities across the US, generating revenue from inpatient admissions, emergency care, and surgical procedures. The company benefits from structural tailwinds: an aging population driving higher admission volumes, limited supply of hospital beds in many markets, and pricing power that outpaces medical cost inflation. Near-term growth hinges on elective procedure recovery and margin expansion as labor costs stabilize after pandemic-driven wage inflation. Trading at 14.1x forward earnings with an operating margin of 15.2%, HCA offers valuation that does not yet reflect normalized procedure volumes or the full benefit of operational leverage as staffing costs moderate. The 136% ROE reflects substantial financial leverage, which amplifies returns in a business with predictable cash flows but also warrants scrutiny on debt levels and refinancing risk in a higher-rate environment.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 12, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • moderate
    Negative equity structure
    Debt/Equity ratio of -16.78 indicates net debt position materially exceeds equity. Typical for leveraged healthcare operators but warrants monitoring of refinancing risk and interest coverage.
  • moderate
    Quality score lagging
    ACCE Quality component at 56/100 is notably below Growth (60) and Valuation (75). Suggests operational or cash conversion concerns despite strong headline earnings growth.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • The company generated $3.7B in free cash flow over the last 12 months while shrinking share count by 11.9%.
  • Revenue has grown 8.7% year over year and 7.9% on a 5-year average, outpacing typical healthcare inflation.
Why it could disappoint
  • The reverse DCF implies only 5.6% perpetual cash flow growth, below the 8.7% recent revenue growth rate.
  • Negative debt to equity of -16.78 signals the balance sheet has been hollowed by buybacks, limiting financial flexibility.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 27, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where HCA's valuation models land
Price
$469.03
Model fair value
$532
Model range
$359 to $716
Fair value $532
Price $469
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Mixed58% buy · 26 covering analysts
● Strong buy 14● Buy 1● Hold 9● Sell 1● Strong sell 1
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
2 buys · 0 sells
Since Jun 17, 2026, 1 member
Average delay
13 days
From trade to public filing
Full trade list on ProDo politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+2.2%
1 month
+7.5%
3 months
+22.7%
6 months
+8.5%
YTD
+0.5%
1 year
+6.6%

SEC filings

Recent ACCE blog coverage

  • $HCA Score Drops 15 Points to 65 on ACCE Composite Rating
    HCA Healthcare's ACCE composite score fell from 80 to 65, a significant 15-point decline that suggests weakness across multiple fundamental factors.
    2026-05-07

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CESTRatingUndervaluedfirst publication$459
14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$537$530$459
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$530$564$445
4 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$564$571$427
23 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$571$579$426
18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$480first publication$429
14 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$579$594$427
11 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$594$581$422
4 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$581$588$402
31 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$588$958$418

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth60Value79Quality68Momentum56Total66
Valuation
Trailing P/E
15.7x
Forward P/E
14.7x
PEG
1.33
P/B
291.34x
EV / Revenue
1.9x
Book value/sh
$-30.47
Enterprise value
$145.4B
Profitability
ROE
136.3%
FCF yield
7.73%
ROIC
no data
Health and risk
Debt / equity
-17.57
Dividend yield
0.67%
Beta
1.11

Price

+4.9% · 1Y

Ask anything about HCA

Answered from HCA Healthcare Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 33% of peers
low 10.3x15.7xhigh 20.8x
ROEbetter than 100% of peers
low 8%136%high 136%
Div yieldbetter than 50% of peers
low 0.0%0.7%high 3.9%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
HCA HCA Healthcare Inc. Common Stock$469.03$53212% below15.7x136.3%6866
FRE.DE Fresenius€45.31€5010% below16.6x8.3%5963
THC Tenet Healthcare Corporation Common Stock$270.63$32918% below10.3x37.3%6881
EHC Encompass Health Corporation Common Stock$126.01$9631% above20.8x25.0%7269
FME.DE Fresenius Medical Care€39.18€5832% below12.2x8.5%5155
FMS Fresenius Medical Care AG American Depositary Shares (Each representing 1/2 of an Ordinary Share)$22.23$3333% below11.7x8.5%5655
DVA DaVita Inc. Common Stock$186.10$26329% below15.7x88.5%6476

Sector report card

Where HCA ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Oct 6, 2026
    Knowtion Health Names Steven Huddleston Chief Executive Officer
  • Business Wire•Sep 30, 2026
    HCA Healthcare, Inc. 3rd Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call
  • Business Wire•Sep 29, 2026
    HCA Healthcare Presents 2026 Awards of Distinction
7 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
36 filings
August 2026
Aug 28
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-08-26
View on SEC →
July 2026
Jul 29
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-07-29
View on SEC →
Jul 28
10-QQuarterly reportPeriod 2026-06-30
View on SEC →
33 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR