3 models fit Global Payments Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver72
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionGlobal Payments Inc. Common Stock (GPN)
Fair value (3 models)
$82.84
ACCE price target
$95.00
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST; previously $84.31 since 7 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST.
Price used: $82.82 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
0.0% below
+0.0% to fair value
ACCE score
68
out of 100
Analysts
42% buy
36 covering
P/E
37.8x
forward 5.1x
1-year return
-5.3%
Dividend yield
1.16%
Global Payments Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Global Payments processes card transactions for merchants and banks, selling payment acceptance terminals, point-of-sale software and merchant acquiring services, with its Issuer Solutions and Merchant Solutions segments providing the core revenue base. The durable edge is scale in acquiring plus embedded software relationships with merchants, which makes the switching cost of moving a checkout stack meaningful. The most visible near-term driver is integration of its large recent acquisitions, which management needs to convert into lower cost and higher cross-sell rates. At a $21.7B market cap, the stock trades at 5.1x forward earnings against 38.5x trailing, a gap that signals the market expects earnings to recover sharply or that the trailing figure is distorted by one-time charges. Reported revenue growth of 68.6% is almost certainly acquisition-driven rather than organic, and ROE of 2.4% shows little shareholder return yet, so the thesis rests on whether the forward earnings estimate holds up under scrutiny.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse
Earnings down 95.2% YoY while revenue up 68.6%. Net margin deeply negative at -9.2%. Profitability deterioration not explained by growth phase.
high
Valuation disconnect
Trailing P/E 38.6 vs forward P/E 5.1 implies massive earnings recovery priced in. Current net margin -9.2% makes forward multiple credibility questionable.
moderate
ROE collapse
ROE +2.4% is near zero despite 64% gross margin and $7.9B FCF. Suggests capital inefficiency or one-time charges eroding shareholder returns.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow of $7.9B supports a 36.2% yield, indicating the market may be pricing in excessive pessimism about near-term earnings.
Revenue surged 68.6% year over year, driven by the Worldpay acquisition, positioning GPN as a larger player in global payments.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin of negative 9.2% and ROE of only 2.4% despite 68.6% growth suggest acquisition costs are destroying shareholder value.
Trailing P/E of 38.6x is expensive relative to forward P/E of 5.1x, signaling the market expects earnings to collapse.
Debt to equity of 0.98 leaves little room to absorb integration missteps or a downturn in payment volumes.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where GPN's valuation models land
Price
$82.82
Model fair value
$82.84
Model range
$59.70 to $107
Fair value $82.84
Price $82.82
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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