FirstService Corporation Common Shares (FSV) fair value
Real Estate · Real Estate Services · NASDAQ · United States
$143.67-2.41%
Market cap $6.3BNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 45% above our fair value
Price
$143.67
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$99.30
Model range
$72.66 to $135
Fair value $99.30
Price $144
3 models fit FirstService Corporation Common Shares and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze55
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionFirstService Corporation Common Shares (FSV)
Fair value (3 models)
$99.30
ACCE price target
$131
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $103 since 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $144 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
44.7% above
-30.9% to fair value
ACCE score
43
out of 100
Analysts
80% buy
10 covering
P/E
44.1x
forward 21.4x
1-year return
-13.8%
Dividend yield
0.83%
FirstService Corporation Common Shares in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
FirstService runs two property-services businesses: Colliers-style commercial property management and brokerage is not its core, rather it operates residential property management (through Colliers' sibling brands it is best known for FirstService Residential) and restoration services under CertaPro Painters and Paul Davis Restoration. The moat is scale and route density in fragmented service markets, which helps it win contracts with condo boards and insurers. The key driver is the restoration segment, where insurance-driven demand after severe weather tends to lift volumes quickly. The stock screens expensive on trailing earnings at 38.4x but 19.5x forward, which implies the market expects earnings to recover sharply from a 7.1% operating margin, against revenue growth of only 2.4%. Our composite score is 37/100 and the company sits outside major indices, so it deserves a deeper look only if you believe margin expansion is achievable without a pickup in top-line growth.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings and revenue slipping
Earnings fell 1.1% YoY and revenue grew only 2.4% against a 14.8% five-year revenue CAGR. Growth has decelerated sharply, and quarter-on-quarter revenue dropped 4.8%.
high
Score collapsed in 90 days
The ACCE score fell 13 points, from 50 to 37, with growth at 19 and momentum at 23. The deterioration is recent and broad across factors.
moderate
Stretched valuation on earnings
Trailing P/E is 38.5 and the stock trades 44.7% above the model fair value of $99.30, with a 0.8% margin of safety not present. Earnings weakness leaves little room for error.
moderate
Leverage and thin net margin
Debt to equity is 1.18 and net margin is 2.9% on an operating margin of 7.1%. Interest and other costs absorb most operating profit.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts are bullish, with 8 of 10 rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and their mean target sits 27.7% above the share price.
Free cash flow over the last 12 months reached $324M, and the latest quarter beat expected earnings per share by 3.8%.
Over five years revenue grew 14.8% a year on average, showing a long record of expansion through acquisitions.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 44.7% above the model fair value of $99.30, and all three valuation models in the consensus point the same way.
Trailing earnings multiple of 38.5x is far above the sector median forward multiple of 17.8x, leaving little room for error.
Net margin of 2.9% and return on invested capital of 4.0% are thin, and debt to equity of 1.18 adds balance sheet strain.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where FSV's valuation models land
Price
$143.67
Model fair value
$99.30
Model range
$72.66 to $135
Fair value $99.30
Price $144
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores