3 models fit Farmland Partners Inc. Common Stock and they agree: 3 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)
Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO, Dividend discount, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionFarmland Partners Inc. Common Stock (FPI)
Fair value (3 models)
$12.00
ACCE price target
$10.20
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $12.77 since 12 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CEST.
Price used: $10.25 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
14.6% below
+17.1% to fair value
ACCE score
40
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
2 covering
P/E
20.1x
forward 42.7x
1-year return
-0.4%
Dividend yield
3.60%
Farmland Partners Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Farmland Partners owns and leases U.S. farmland, collecting rent from tenant farmers on row-crop acreage and generating income from cash-rent contracts and water rights rather than from crop sales. The structural case rests on the scarcity of arable land and the lease-based cash flow, which carries an 82.7% gross margin and a 36.3% operating margin, a combination few real estate owners match. The near-term catalyst is harder to pin down, since revenue fell 5.5% and the forward P/E of 161.3 against a trailing 20.3 signals that earnings are expected to shrink sharply before any recovery. A 5.0% return on equity and a 44/100 score leave little margin for error, so the question for a PM is whether the land base and margin profile justify a deeper look at lease rollover, asset sales and how management plans to restore growth.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapsing year over year
Earnings are down 50.2% YoY while revenue fell 5.5%, and QoQ revenue is down 7.0%. The business is shrinking, not just repricing.
moderate
Forward P/E well above trailing
Trailing P/E is 20.3 but forward P/E is 43.1, implying the market expects earnings to fall further. Thin ROE of 5.0% gives little cushion.
moderate
Heavy short interest
Short interest stands at 11.0% of the float, meaning a meaningful bearish bet is already placed against a shrinking top line.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-16 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow of $17M over the last twelve months gives the stock a 3.8% free cash flow yield at this price.
The company cut its diluted share count by 8.5% last fiscal year, so each remaining share owns a larger slice of the business.
The latest quarter beat expectations, with earnings per share of 0.04 against 0.02 expected, and the shares trade 14.6% below the model fair value of $12.00.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 5.5% year over year, while the five-year average growth rate is only 0.6% a year.
Return on invested capital of 4.2% is thin, so the business earns little on the money tied up in it.
The forward price-to-earnings ratio of 43.1x is more than double the trailing 20.3x, which means the earnings recovery needed to justify the price is large.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where FPI's valuation models land
Price
$10.25
Model fair value
$12.00
Model range
$10.99 to $13.77
Fair value $12.00
Price $10.25
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Price to FFO
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Quality
INVESTOR
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