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FOSL
ACCE-researched

Fossil Group Inc. Common Stock (FOSL) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories · NASDAQ · United States
$6.60+0.76%
Market cap $390MNext earnings 2026-11-10Updated Oct 16, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 29% below our fair value
Price
$6.60
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $9.25
Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a loss-making company: Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionFossil Group Inc. Common Stock (FOSL)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$7.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $6.50 since 1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $6.60 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
40
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
4 covering
1-year return
+179.7%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Fossil Group Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Fossil Group designs watches, jewellery and accessories under its own brand and under licences, selling through department stores, its own stores and online. A global distribution network is an asset, but the category has been shrinking. The driver is cost reduction and balance sheet repair. Revenue fell 4.9% and ROE is -66.5%, with a 3.5% operating margin, so the 166.7x forward multiple shows little earnings power is expected.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 14, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • severe
    Negative earnings and ROE collapse
    Net margin -7.1%, ROE -66.5%, earnings down 81.7% YoY. Company is unprofitable despite positive operating margin.
  • high
    Revenue decline accelerating
    Revenue down 4.9% YoY and 6.7% QoQ. 5-year CAGR of -23.2% shows structural deterioration, not cyclical weakness.
  • high
    Leverage with negative earnings
    Debt/Equity 4.62x with negative ROE and net margin. High leverage on unprofitable base limits financial flexibility.
  • moderate
    Valuation disconnect
    Forward P/E 55x on negative current earnings and declining revenue. ACCE fair value $6.50 vs current $7.15 suggests limited margin of safety.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • The company generated $25M in free cash flow over the last twelve months, yielding 5.8% at the current share price.
  • Latest earnings beat expectations by 55.2%, suggesting operational improvements are beginning to materialize.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue has contracted 4.9% year over year and 23.2% annually over five years, with no visible turnaround catalyst.
  • The company is unprofitable with a negative 7.1% net margin and negative 66.5% return on equity, destroying shareholder value.
  • Debt to equity of 4.62 combined with a forward P/E of 55.0x leaves little room for error if the turnaround stalls.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 10, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where FOSL's valuation models land
Price
$6.60
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $9.25
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish100% buy · 4 covering analysts
● Strong buy 3● Buy 1● Hold 0● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
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Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-4.6%
1 month
+7.0%
3 months
+63.0%
6 months
+39.2%
YTD
+75.5%
1 year
+179.7%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price target$7.00$6.50$6.92
1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$6.50first publication$6.16

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth7Value23Quality34Momentum97Total40
Valuation
Trailing P/E
no data
Forward P/E
50.8x
PEG
no data
P/B
4.06x
EV / Revenue
0.6x
Book value/sh
$1.59
Enterprise value
$628M
Profitability
ROE
-66.5%
FCF yield
-15.15%
ROIC
-16.7%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
2.74
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
1.56

Price

+187.0% · 1Y

Ask anything about FOSL

Answered from Fossil Group Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
ROEbetter than 0% of peers
low -67%-67%high 14%
Div yieldbetter than 17% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 3.9%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
FOSL Fossil Group Inc. Common Stock$6.60----66.5%3440
RCKY Rocky Brands Inc. Common Stock$47.64$4213% above12.1x11.5%4771
DBI Designer Brands Inc. Class A Common Stock$6.55--21.1x8.5%3356
WEYS Weyco Group Inc. Common Stock$51.84$3357% above13.9x13.8%8382
DOCS.L Dr. Martens plc£0.66--32.8x6.5%6355
VRA Vera Bradley Inc. Common Stock$6.12----7.4%4453
ALDLT.PA Delta Plus Group€19.90--5.4x9.5%6352

Sector report card

Where FOSL ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • GlobeNewswire•Oct 8, 2026
    Sebastian Digrande and Chandhu Nair Elected to Fossil Group Board of Directors; Wendy Schoppert Elected Chair of the Board
  • GlobeNewswire•Jun 23, 2026
    Fossil Group, Inc. Announces Inclusion in Russell 2000® Index
  • GlobeNewswire•May 19, 2026
    Fossil Group, Inc. to Participate in TD Cowen’s 10th Annual Future of the Consumer Conference
2 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 16
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-15
View on SEC →
Oct 16
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-15
View on SEC →
Oct 16
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-15
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR