4 models fit Eagle Materials Inc Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionEagle Materials Inc Common Stock (EXP)
Fair value (4 models)
$167
ACCE price target
$165
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $214 since 9 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 CEST.
Price used: $175 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
4.3% above
-4.2% to fair value
ACCE score
47
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
11 covering
P/E
14.1x
forward 13.7x
1-year return
-25.3%
Dividend yield
0.58%
Eagle Materials Inc Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Eagle Materials makes cement, gypsum wallboard, recycled paperboard and concrete and aggregates, mostly for U.S. residential and infrastructure construction. Its moat is physical rather than brand-based: cement plants and quarries are costly to permit and build, so incumbents in regional markets face little new supply, which supports the 21.7% operating margin and 27.0% ROE in the data. Revenue growth is only 2.6%, so the case rests on margin durability and capital returns, not top-line acceleration. The stock trades at 13.4x trailing and 13.7x forward earnings, a modest multiple for a business with this profitability, though the forward estimate sitting slightly above trailing signals analysts expect little earnings lift. The composite score of 47/100 and absence from major indices mean the name has not screened well on our model and has limited passive ownership, so a deeper look should focus on whether the housing and infrastructure cycle can lift volumes faster than the 2.6% growth now expected.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Earnings declining despite revenue growth
Revenue grew 2.6% year over year while earnings fell 12.5%, so profit is shrinking even as sales edge up. Quarter over quarter, the figure dropped 13.8%.
moderate
Leveraged balance sheet
Debt to equity sits at 1.22. Free cash flow of $197M gives some cushion, but leverage limits flexibility if earnings keep falling.
moderate
Score down six points in 90 days
The ACCE score fell from 53 to 47 over 90 days. Growth (19) and momentum (17) are the weakest components, while valuation (75) is the strongest.
moderate
Short interest elevated
Short interest stands at 7.9% of shares outstanding. Insider sales of $1.70M against no insider buys point the same way, though the sales are modest in size.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Net margin of 17.3% and return on equity of 27.0% show the business turns sales into profit well.
Free cash flow of $197M over the last twelve months gives the business real cash to fund its plants and reduce debt.
The share count fell 6.4% last fiscal year, so each remaining share owns a bigger slice of the company.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue grew only 2.6% year over year, well below the 7.3% five-year average, so growth is slowing.
Return on invested capital of 10.6% is modest for a company carrying debt at 1.22 times equity.
The stock trades 4.3% above the model fair value of $167.44, and only 0% of 11 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where EXP's valuation models land
Price
$174.71
Model fair value
$167
Model range
$121 to $216
Fair value $167
Price $175
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores