Ecopetrol S.A. American Depositary Shares (EC) fair value

ACCE thesis

Ecopetrol is Colombia's state-controlled integrated oil company, producing crude and natural gas, refining at its Barrancabermeja and Cartagena complexes, and moving fuels and crude through its pipeline network. Its structural position rests on owning most of Colombia's upstream reserves and midstream infrastructure, which gives it scale no domestic peer matches, though the government's influence over pricing, dividends and capital allocation is a permanent discount to weigh. The near-term story is a strong revenue rebound, with trailing revenue growth of 35.5%, alongside a 16.0% return on equity and a trailing P/E of 9.4 (9.1 forward). The stock trades at a single-digit earnings multiple despite that growth, but the reported 0.0% operating margin means the earnings base needs checking before the valuation can be taken at face value, so this merits a deeper look focused on the margin line and the sustainability of the revenue gain.