3 models fit Distribution Solutions Group Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze53
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionDistribution Solutions Group Inc. Common Stock (DSGR)
Fair value (3 models)
$23.87
ACCE price target
$36.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $26.41 since 1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 CEST.
Price used: $35.01 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
46.7% above
-31.8% to fair value
ACCE score
62
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
2 covering
P/E
184.3x
forward 19.6x
1-year return
+15.6%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Distribution Solutions Group Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Distribution Solutions Group sells maintenance, repair and operations parts, plus Lawson Products fasteners and specialty industrial consumables, into a fragmented base of manufacturers and facilities customers. Its edge is a roll-up model: it buys smaller distributors, folds them onto its shared procurement and e-commerce platform, and grows revenue 11.0% on a 32.7% gross margin, a spread that is hard for single-site competitors to match. The near-term question is whether operating margin, at 5.5%, widens as acquired businesses are integrated, since that is the gap between a distributor and a compounder. On trailing earnings the stock looks expensive at 184.5 times, but on forward estimates the multiple is 19.6 times, so the case rests on earnings normalising rather than on the headline ratio. Return on equity of 1.4% is weak and worth examining in the balance sheet before anything else.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Rich trailing valuation
Trailing P/E of 184.4 against a forward P/E of 20.0 means earnings are thin today, with net margin at just 0.4%. The stock trades 46.7% above the model fair value of $23.87.
moderate
Leverage and thin returns
Debt/Equity of 1.26 and ROE of 1.4% leave little cushion. Operating margin of 5.5% is low for a distributor carrying this much debt.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 21, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 11.0% year over year in the latest quarter, and the five-year average growth rate is 41.3% per year.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $43M, and the share count has barely changed, slipping 0.1% last year.
The latest quarter beat expectations, with earnings per share of 0.47 against 0.38 expected, a 23.7% surprise.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 46.7% above the model fair value of $23.87, and all three valuation models in the consensus sit there.
Net margin is just 0.4% and return on equity is 1.4%, so profit barely reaches shareholders despite the growing sales.
Debt equals 1.26 times equity, and the trailing P/E of 184.4x means earnings do not currently support the share price.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where DSGR's valuation models land
Price
$35.01
Model fair value
$23.87
Model range
$8.98 to $36.08
Fair value $23.87
Price $35.01
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
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