Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionCrowdStrike Holdings Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWD)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$196
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $255 since 3 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $258 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
61
out of 100
Analysts
75% buy
53 covering
P/E
5151.4x
forward 159.9x
1-year return
+97.4%
Dividend yield
0.00%
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
CrowdStrike sells a cloud-native endpoint security platform (Falcon) that protects workloads, identities and cloud environments from a single agent and console, with modules for threat intelligence, cloud security and SIEM layered on top. Its structural edge is the Falcon platform's data model and the platform-consolidation pitch, which lets customers retire point products and gives CrowdStrike a 75.2% gross margin that few security vendors can match. Near term, the driver is cross-selling additional Falcon modules into the installed base, with revenue growing 25.8% and the company sitting in ACCE's AI Infrastructure and Cybersecurity baskets as AI-driven attack volume raises demand for automated defense. The valuation is the obstacle: a forward P/E of 208.3 and a trailing P/E near 4,891 on thin GAAP profitability (operating margin of -2.3%, ROE of 1.5%) mean the thesis rests on margins expanding substantially from here. The score of 61/100 suggests the case is credible but not yet compelling, so the stock merits a deeper look focused on operating leverage and free cash flow conversion.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Valuation disconnect from fundamentals
P/E of 4584 and EV/EBITDA of 625 are extreme multiples. Current price $275 sits above ACCE fair value of $255 and near the top of the $165-$340 range.
high
Operating margin deeply negative
Operating margin is -2.3% despite 75% gross margin and $1.3B FCF. Profitability metrics (ROE +1.5%, net margin +0.8%) are razor-thin relative to valuation.
moderate
Heavy insider selling
Last 10 disclosures show $41.4M in insider sales against $0 in buys. Insiders are net sellers despite stock near fair value ceiling.
moderate
Earnings growth unsustainable
YoY earnings up 533% but revenue up only 26%. This gap suggests one-time items or margin expansion that cannot persist at current scale.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-07-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 25.8% year over year, well above the 5-year average of 40.6%, showing the business remains on a strong trajectory.
Free cash flow of 1.3 billion dollars over the last twelve months demonstrates the company converts growth into real cash.
75% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, with a mean price target of 237.77 dollars suggesting upside from current levels.
Why it could disappoint
The trailing P/E of 4584.0x is disconnected from reality, implying the market has priced in near-perfect execution indefinitely.
Net margin of 0.8% and ROIC of negative 2.5% show the company destroys shareholder capital despite a decade of scale.
The latest earnings missed expectations by 80%, with EPS of 0.01 versus 0.05 expected, signaling execution risk the valuation does not reflect.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Dec 1, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where CRWD's valuation models land
Price
$257.57
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $23.88
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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