COF
ACCE-researchedOverview
ACCE thesis
Capital One underwrites credit cards, auto loans, and consumer banking products to mass-market and subprime borrowers, running one of the largest card portfolios in the U.S. with a data and technology infrastructure it has spent two decades building from scratch rather than bolting onto legacy systems. The pending Discover Financial acquisition - announced February 2024 at roughly $35B - is the real story here: closing it hands COF a proprietary payment network that immediately competes with Visa and Mastercard on interchange economics, a structural shift that changes the unit economics of every card COF issues going forward. Forward PE of 7.8 against trailing of 57.4 tells you the market is pricing in normalized earnings once merger costs, reserve builds, and integration noise clear. ROE at 3.3% looks ugly in isolation, but that number is depressed by exactly those transition items - pre-pandemic COF ran mid-teens ROE consistently, and the Discover network eliminates a meaningful cost layer that structurally improves that figure. The regulatory path and integration execution are the legitimate risks, but if Fairbank closes this deal clean, the combined entity is a fundamentally different business than what existed 18 months ago.
- highP/E vs Forward P/E gapTrailing P/E of 62.2 vs forward P/E of 10.2 signals massive earnings distortion or one-time items inflating current multiple.
- highROE extremely lowROE of only 3.3% for a credit services firm is well below cost of equity, suggesting poor capital efficiency currently.
- moderateMomentum score very weakACCE Momentum score is 31/100, the lowest sub-score, indicating poor near-term price/earnings trend despite score recovery.
- moderateEarnings declining on revenue surgeRevenue up 46.3% YoY yet earnings fell 3.2% YoY, pointing to significant cost pressure or credit loss provisioning offsetting top-line growth.
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
Price
Valuation
INVESTORSix independent models converge on one confidence-weighted fair value, with full methodology and editable assumptions.
- +All six models: DCF, P/E and EV/EBITDA comps, Graham, dividend discount, residual income
- +Scenario bands, sensitivity tornado, and the 5-year historical valuation range
- +Editable DCF workbench with saved scenarios
Quality
INVESTORThe full quality picture: conviction breakdown, earnings quality, score history, and backtested returns.
- +Conviction score breakdown and earnings-quality grade
- +Growth / value / quality / momentum component scores
- +90-day score history and score-threshold backtests
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
- +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
- +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
- +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PROFollow the institutions: 13F position changes, insider trades, and active 13D activist filings.
- +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
- +Recent open-market insider transactions
- +Active 13D activist filings and top holders
Compare
Where it sits vs peers
Algorithmic peers (6)
| Ticker | Company | Mcap | P/E | ROE | D/E | Yield | Quality | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXP | American Express Company Common Stock | $210.4B | 18.9 | 34.4% | 1.73 | 1.1% | - | Compare |
| BAJFINANCE.NS | Bajaj Finance | $67.5B | 32.0 | 17.9% | 314.83 | 0.5% | - | Compare |
| PYPL | PayPal Holdings Inc. Common Stock | $44.8B | 9.9 | 24.5% | 0.49 | 1.1% | - | Compare |
| MA | Mastercard Incorporated Common Stock | $495.2B | 31.1 | 241.2% | 2.46 | 0.6% | - | Compare |
| SYF | Synchrony Financial Common Stock | $24.4B | 7.7 | 20.8% | 0.91 | 1.6% | - | Compare |
| AFRM | Affirm Holdings Inc. Class A Common Stock | $24.0B | 12.9 | 45.1% | 1.86 | 0.0% | - | Compare |
Sector report card
Where COF ranks against its sector peers on each metric.
News and Record
Press releases mentioning this company
- PR Newswire•Sep 16, 2026Vinous Icons: Miami Returns November 12-14 with Over 100 Benchmark Estates
- Business Wire•Sep 14, 2026Liberty All-Star® Equity Fund August 2026 Monthly Update
- PR Newswire•Sep 10, 2026RD PROPERTY EXPANDS CREDIT FACILITY TO $420 MILLION, ADDS CAPITAL ONE TO BANKING GROUP
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