AFRM
ACCE-researchedOverview
ACCE thesis
Affirm operates a buy-now-pay-later platform that processes installment loans at checkout for e-commerce and brick-and-mortar retailers, generating revenue through merchant fees and interest on consumer loans. The company's transparent pricing model and integration with major retailers like Amazon, Shopify, and Target creates sticky merchant relationships while building a defensible network effect. Management expects to reach adjusted operating profitability by fiscal 2025 as the platform scales and credit losses normalize from pandemic-era lows. Trading at 16.7x forward earnings represents a sharp discount from the 2021 peak, while gross merchandise volume grew 35% year-over-year in Q3 2024 to $7.9 billion. The shift from growth-at-any-cost to disciplined underwriting and profitability focus makes this the most compelling entry point since the IPO.
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Price
Valuation
INVESTORSix independent models converge on one confidence-weighted fair value, with full methodology and editable assumptions.
- +All six models: DCF, P/E and EV/EBITDA comps, Graham, dividend discount, residual income
- +Scenario bands, sensitivity tornado, and the 5-year historical valuation range
- +Editable DCF workbench with saved scenarios
Quality
INVESTORThe full quality picture: conviction breakdown, earnings quality, score history, and backtested returns.
- +Conviction score breakdown and earnings-quality grade
- +Growth / value / quality / momentum component scores
- +90-day score history and score-threshold backtests
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
- +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
- +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
- +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PROFollow the institutions: 13F position changes, insider trades, and active 13D activist filings.
- +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
- +Recent open-market insider transactions
- +Active 13D activist filings and top holders
Compare
Where it sits vs peers
Algorithmic peers (6)
| Ticker | Company | Mcap | P/E | ROE | D/E | Yield | Quality | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYF | Synchrony Financial Common Stock | $24.4B | 7.7 | 20.8% | 0.91 | 1.6% | - | Compare |
| SOFI | SoFi Technologies Inc. Common Stock | $21.9B | 34.6 | 7.1% | 0.17 | 0.0% | - | Compare |
| CHOLAFIN.NS | Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company Limited | $16.0B | 26.5 | 19.3% | 695.28 | 0.1% | - | Compare |
| TATACAP.NS | TATA CAPITAL LIMITED | $15.3B | 27.1 | 12.0% | 502.93 | 0.2% | - | Compare |
| PYPL | PayPal Holdings Inc. Common Stock | $44.8B | 9.9 | 24.5% | 0.49 | 1.1% | - | Compare |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc. Common Stock | $12.2B | 9.4 | 9.7% | 1.37 | 3.0% | - | Compare |
Sector report card
Where AFRM ranks against its sector peers on each metric.
News and Record
Press releases mentioning this company
- Business Wire•Sep 17, 2026Affirm launches transformer-based machine learning model for real-time underwriting
- Business Wire•Aug 6, 2026Affirm to announce fourth quarter fiscal year 2026 results on August 27, 2026
- Business Wire•May 12, 2026Affirm works with Google to make AI shopping payments clear and simple
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