Empresas CMPC (CMPC.SN) fair value

ACCE thesis

Empresas CMPC is a Chilean forest-products group whose core businesses are pulp, tissue (Softys) and wood products, with sawn timber and panels sold into export markets. Its advantage is a large, owned plantation base in Chile and Brazil, which gives it low-cost fibre in a sector where that matters more than almost anything else. Growth is the weak point: revenue grew only 0.5% over the period, and operating margin of 4.1% against a gross margin of 18.4% shows how much of the gross profit is absorbed before it reaches the bottom line. The trailing P/E of 24.9 sits far above a forward P/E of 4.7, which points to depressed trailing earnings rather than a cheap stock, and ROE of 1.1% gives little reason to pay up for quality. The name scores 36/100 and sits in no major index, so it is a special-situation candidate at best, worth a deeper look only if the earnings recovery implied by the forward multiple can be traced to pulp price or volume recovery rather than cost cuts.