Compañía Española de Viviendas en Alquiler S.A. (CEV.MC) fair value

ACCE thesis

CEV.MC is a Spanish developer of residential rental housing, building and holding apartment blocks for rent in Spain. The bull case rests on a rental-housing thesis: Spanish household formation and a shortage of affordable rental supply, with a developer that owns its assets rather than selling units to individual buyers. Revenue fell 18.3% in the latest period, so the near-term catalyst is whether that decline reflects timing of completions or a slowdown in the rental book, and the answer should show up in the next reported numbers. The stock trades at 5.7x trailing earnings against 14.7x forward, a gap that implies earnings are expected to fall sharply, which is either a warning or an opening for the bulls who expect a rebound from a depressed base. An 8.1% ROE and a 251.7% operating margin set against a 195M EUR market cap are not numbers to take at face value without checking how much of the operating profit is recurring, so the first task for a deeper look is reconciling those margins with the revenue decline.