2 models fit CareDx Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze54
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionCareDx Inc. Common Stock (CDNA)
Fair value (2 models)
$23.49
ACCE price target
$60.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST; previously $17.72 since 8 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST.
Price used: $69.21 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
194.6% above
-66.1% to fair value
ACCE score
66
out of 100
Analysts
71% buy
7 covering
P/E
33.3x
forward 53.7x
1-year return
+370.8%
Dividend yield
0.00%
CareDx Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
CareDx sells transplant diagnostics, chiefly the AlloSure donor-derived cell-free DNA test that monitors kidney transplant recipients for rejection, alongside its AlloMap gene-expression test for heart transplants. The moat is clinical: AlloSure is embedded in transplant surveillance protocols and reimbursed through Medicare and commercial payers, which gives it a 70.6% gross margin and a high-switching-cost installed base. Revenue growth of 52.2% is the headline, and the near-term question is whether operating margin, currently near breakeven at 0.2%, can expand as volume scales on that fixed cost structure. At a forward P/E of 156.3 against a trailing 32.1, the market is pricing in a steep earnings ramp that has not yet appeared in reported results, so the thesis rests on margin conversion rather than on top-line momentum. The name has a 67/100 score and sits outside major indices, which makes it worth a deeper look on the margin trajectory and reimbursement risk before any conclusion is reached.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings flat despite revenue growth
Revenue grew 52.2% year over year, yet earnings growth was 0.0% and the operating margin is only +0.2%. Net margin of 24.2% looks inflated relative to operations, so the earnings quality needs checking.
moderate
Heavy short interest
Short interest sits at 13.0% of float, a meaningful bearish positioning that can amplify volatility in either direction.
moderate
Rich valuation on forward earnings
Forward P/E of 49.6 and EV/EBITDA of 157.8 leave little margin for error. The price sits 15.3% above the ACCE price target of $60.00.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 52.2% year over year, far faster than its 14.6% average annual pace over five years.
Net margin of 24.2% and a 29.5% return on equity show the business turns sales into profit well.
Five of seven analysts rate the shares Buy or Strong Buy, and the latest quarter beat expected earnings by 183.3%.
Why it could disappoint
Return on invested capital is negative at -5.3%, so the money put into the business is not earning a return yet.
At $64.00 the shares trade on 49.6x forward earnings, roughly double the sector median of 24.2x.
The shares sit 15.3% above the $60.00 ACCE price target, and the analysts' mean target of $61.67 is below the current price.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where CDNA's valuation models land
Price
$69.21
Model fair value
$23.49
Model range
$20.78 to $28.92
Fair value $23.49
Price $69.21
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores