Banijay Group N.V. (BNJ.AS) fair value

ACCE thesis

Banijay Group makes and distributes unscripted and scripted television, including formats such as Big Brother, Survivor and MasterChef, with production houses and a distribution arm that licenses programming worldwide. Its moat is a deep library of proven formats and a global production footprint that lets it sell the same format into many markets, which tends to protect margins as rights are reused. Reported revenue growth of 27.5% and a 28.5% return on equity show a business that is compounding faster than most of its European media peers. The stock trades at 16.4 times trailing earnings but only 6.0 times forward earnings, a gap that implies the market expects sharp earnings growth or doubts the forecast, and that gap is the first thing to test. An operating margin of 16.8% on a 37.4% gross margin leaves room to judge how much of the forecast depends on production cost discipline.