3 models fit Bilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionBilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares (BILI)
Fair value (3 models)
$13.63
ACCE price target
$16.70
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $16.69 since 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $26.00 since 8 Jun 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $13.48 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
1.1% below
+1.1% to fair value
ACCE score
55
out of 100
Analysts
97% buy
30 covering
P/E
26.4x
forward 11.8x
1-year return
-53.4%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Bilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Bilibili runs the video platform most associated with China's anime, gaming and young-adult fandom, monetising through advertising, live-streamed gifts and games, and premium membership. The platform's moat is its dense, loyal community of creators and viewers, which is hard to replicate and keeps engagement high even as competition from larger short-video apps intensifies. Revenue growth of 8.2% is modest, but a 4.7% operating margin and 37.0% gross margin show the business is finally converting scale into profit, and the forward P/E of 11.8 against a trailing 28.3 implies earnings are expected to recover sharply. The market is pricing the stock at a discount to that recovery, which makes the forward numbers the first thing to test. With a $5.9B market cap, no index membership and a score of 55/100, the name sits outside most screens, so the question for a deeper look is whether margin expansion is durable.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings quality concern
Earnings up 52.9% YoY but revenue only +8.2%; quality score (M) collapsed to 17/100. Suggests non-recurring gains or accounting adjustments driving profit growth.
moderate
Sequential revenue decline
QoQ revenue fell 10.2% despite positive YoY growth. Signals potential demand weakness or seasonal headwind that warrants monitoring.
moderate
Valuation disconnect
Current P/E 29.2 vs forward P/E 11.8 implies sharp earnings deceleration expected.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-09 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Bilibili trades at 11.8x forward earnings, well below the 16.7x sector median, despite beating earnings expectations by 7.7%.
The company generated CNY 5.3B in free cash flow over the last twelve months, yielding 12.5% on today's market price.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue growth has decelerated sharply to 8.2% year over year from a 19.7% five-year average, signaling maturation.
Diluted share count rose 6.6% last fiscal year while net margin sits at only 4.9%, limiting per-share earnings growth.
The stock's current price implies only 2.0% annual cash flow growth over the next five years, leaving little room for disappointment.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 12, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where BILI's valuation models land
Price
$13.48
Model fair value
$13.63
Model range
$4.57 to $21.18
Fair value $13.63
Price $13.48
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores