Industrials · Industrial Distribution · Nasdaq Stockholm · Sweden
kr 153.70+1.45%
Market cap kr 77.9BNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 69% above our fair value
Price
kr 153.70
Model fair valueConfidence: good
kr 91.06
Model range
kr 69.11 to kr 119
Fair value kr 91.06
Price kr 154
3 models fit Beijer Ref AB (publ) and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze52
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionBeijer Ref AB (publ) (BEIJ-B.ST)
Fair value (3 models)
kr 91.06
ACCE price target
kr 149
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously kr 95.13 since 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: kr 154 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
68.8% above
-40.8% to fair value
ACCE score
57
out of 100
P/E
31.2x
forward 27.8x
1-year return
+1.7%
Dividend yield
0.99%
Beijer Ref AB (publ) in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Beijer Ref distributes heating, cooling and refrigeration components across Europe and beyond, from compressors and valves to climate-control systems sold to contractors and OEMs through its own branch network. The moat is the distribution footprint itself: a dense branch network and a broad, technical product catalogue let it win repeat, low-margin-but-sticky service business that is hard for a new entrant to replicate. Revenue grew 5.9%, with a 32.0% gross margin and an 11.1% operating margin, and the stock trades at 27.4x forward earnings against 32.5x trailing, so the market is pricing in earnings growth ahead. The case for a closer look rests on whether that margin structure can hold as refrigerant regulation and the shift to low-GWP equipment drive replacement demand. A 10.5% ROE is respectable rather than exceptional for a distributor at this multiple, so the work is to test whether the growth is durable enough to justify the premium.
⚠ Investor warnings · 1 flagAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Valuation well above model fair value
Stock trades 68.8% above the model fair value of kr 91.06. P/E of 31.3 and EV/EBITDA of 17.8 leave little room for a slowdown in growth, which is running at +5.9% revenue and +4.5% earnings YoY.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached SEK 3.8B, showing the business turns sales into real cash.
Analysts' mean price target of SEK 165.78 sits 13.2% above the current share price.
Forward P/E of 22.6x is slightly below the sector median of 22.9x, so the stock is not expensive against peers.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 68.8% above the model fair value of kr 91.06, and all three valuation models point the same way.
Return on invested capital of 5.5% is thin, suggesting the company earns little beyond its cost of capital.
The latest earnings per share came in 3.6% below expectations, with EPS of 1.63 against 1.69 expected.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where BEIJ-B.ST's valuation models land
Price
kr 153.70
Model fair value
kr 91.06
Model range
kr 69.11 to kr 119
Fair value kr 91.06
Price kr 154
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
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Analysts
Wall Street consensus
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