Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B.ST) fair value
Real Estate · Real Estate - Diversified · Nasdaq Stockholm · Sweden
kr 49.02+5.35%
Market cap kr 56.4BNext earnings 2026-10-23Updated Oct 22, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 26% below our fair value
Price
kr 49.02
Model fair valueConfidence: good
kr 66.34
Model range
kr 29.97 to kr 104
Fair value kr 66.34
Price kr 49.02
3 models fit Fastighets AB Balder (publ) and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionFastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B.ST)
Fair value (3 models)
kr 66.34
ACCE price target
kr 43.50
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: kr 49.02 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
26.1% below
+35.3% to fair value
ACCE score
48
out of 100
P/E
9.3x
forward 18.0x
1-year return
-33.5%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Fastighets AB Balder (publ) in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Fastighets AB Balder is a Stockholm-listed owner of residential and commercial property, with its portfolio concentrated in Sweden and the Berlin and Hamburg markets, and it also holds a stake in Sweden's Hemsö. At a market capitalisation of about 54.9 billion SEK, a 9.0 trailing P/E and a forward P/E of 8.9, the stock is priced at a discount to earnings compared with a sector that often trades on asset values alone. Revenue growth of 4.8% and an operating margin of 66.3% point to a rental book that is growing and collecting efficiently, though the 7.0% return on equity shows how much leverage and reinvestment weigh on shareholder returns. The question for the team is whether the earnings multiple reflects a fair discount for a levered property company or an opening in a name that the market has not yet re-rated, and that turns on the balance-sheet and net-asset-value detail rather than the headline ratios. The data provided does not include a catalyst calendar or index membership, so the near-term timing case still needs to be built from the company's own reporting.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings falling despite revenue growth
Revenue rose 4.8% year on year while earnings fell 9.9%, so profit is not keeping pace with the top line. Forward P/E of 18.0 versus trailing 8.9 also signals expected earnings volatility.
moderate
Elevated leverage
Debt/Equity of 1.58 leaves the balance sheet heavily geared, which magnifies pressure if financing costs rise or property values fall.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached SEK 5.3B, and the stock yields 9.8% on that cash flow.
Revenue has compounded at 11.0% a year over five years, well ahead of the recent 4.8% growth rate.
Analysts' mean price target of SEK 60.43 sits 31.0% above the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
The latest quarter's earnings per share came in 28.5% below expectations, at 0.88 against 1.23 expected.
Debt is 1.58 times equity, and return on invested capital is only 2.6%, so borrowed money earns little.
The share count rose 7.9% in the last fiscal year, diluting each shareholder's stake in the company.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where BALD-B.ST's valuation models land
Price
kr 49.02
Model fair value
kr 66.34
Model range
kr 29.97 to kr 104
Fair value kr 66.34
Price kr 49.02
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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INVESTOR
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