BA

ACCE thesis

Boeing manufactures commercial aircraft, defense systems, and space vehicles, with the 737 MAX representing roughly 70% of its commercial backlog. The company holds a duopoly with Airbus in narrow-body aircraft, where airlines face 8-10 year delivery delays creating pricing power once production stabilizes. MAX deliveries jumped 67% in Q3 2024 as Boeing works through certification backlogs and ramps monthly production toward the FAA-approved 38 aircraft ceiling. Trading at 47x forward earnings despite negative operating margins, the stock reflects maximum pessimism while Boeing sits on a $500 billion order backlog that converts to cash as delivery rates normalize over the next 18 months.

• severe
  Extreme valuation vs fair value

  Current price $215.85 is 127% above ACCE fair value of $95.00, with Forward P/E of 833x signaling near-zero near-term earnings.
• severe
  Dangerous leverage, negative FCF

  Debt/Equity of 9.90x combined with negative FCF of -$1.88B raises serious solvency and refinancing risk.
• high
  Earnings collapse

  Earnings YoY down -68% while revenue grew +14%, indicating severe cost or operational deterioration eroding profitability rapidly.
• high
  Razor-thin margins

  Gross margin only 4.8%, operating margin 1.7% - minimal buffer against any revenue shortfall or cost overrun.
• moderate
  Score decline, net insider selling

  ACCE score fell 3 points in 90 days to 33/100; insiders net sold ($2.23M sales vs $1.30M buys) recently.

Snapshot