ARM

ACCE-researched
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
Technology · Semiconductors · NASDAQ · United States
$275.61+4.04%
Market cap $294.4BNext earnings 2026-11-04Updated Sep 19, 2026
FAIR VALUE · CONSENSUS
$275.61+0.0%
confidence-weighted across 3 of 6 models
Now $275.61
$275.61
$22.78$61.54
AvoidSilver67
Price vs fair value
566.0% above
-85.0% to fair value
ACCE score
68
out of 100
Analysts
70% buy
40 covering
P/E
278.4x
forward 125.0x
1-year return
+88.1%
Dividend yield
0.00%
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Overview

ACCE thesis

ARM designs processor architectures and licenses them to semiconductor companies who build chips for smartphones, data centers, and automotive applications. The company controls over 95% of the mobile processor market through its energy-efficient RISC architecture, collecting royalties on every chip sold by partners like Qualcomm, Apple, and MediaTek. The AI boom is driving demand for ARM-based processors in data centers, with companies like Amazon and Microsoft designing custom chips using ARM's latest Neoverse architecture. Trading at 100x forward earnings after going public in September 2023, the stock reflects massive AI expectations but offers limited upside at current levels. Revenue growth has been modest in recent quarters, making this valuation hard to justify despite the company's dominant market position.

Written May 2, 2026
Investor warnings · 4 flags
  • severe
    Extreme valuation vs fair value
    ACCE fair value $85 vs current $297.71 - stock trades at 3.5x model fair value; V-score of 10/100 confirms extreme overvaluation.
  • high
    P/E 385x unsustainable
    P/E of 385x and EV/EBITDA of 295.8x leave near-zero margin for error; any growth disappointment could trigger severe derating.
  • high
    Elevated short interest
    Short interest at 11.8% signals meaningful institutional skepticism about current valuation levels.
  • moderate
    Insider selling only
    Last 10 disclosed transactions show $0 buys vs $33.26M in sales - insiders are distributing at current elevated prices.
Reports in 44 days, last quarter beat by 0.1%.

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Price

+90.8% · 1Y

Valuation

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Full valuation engine INVESTOR FEATURE

Six independent models converge on one confidence-weighted fair value, with full methodology and editable assumptions.

  • +All six models: DCF, P/E and EV/EBITDA comps, Graham, dividend discount, residual income
  • +Scenario bands, sensitivity tornado, and the 5-year historical valuation range
  • +Editable DCF workbench with saved scenarios

Quality

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Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: conviction breakdown, earnings quality, score history, and backtested returns.

  • +Conviction score breakdown and earnings-quality grade
  • +Growth / value / quality / momentum component scores
  • +90-day score history and score-threshold backtests

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish70% buy · 40 covering analysts
Strong buy 21 Buy 7 Hold 10 Sell 0 Strong sell 2
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the institutions: 13F position changes, insider trades, and active 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Recent open-market insider transactions
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 0% of peers
low 20.3x278.4xhigh 278.4x
ROEbetter than 17% of peers
low 12%13%high 87%
Div yieldbetter than 17% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 2.2%

Algorithmic peers (6)

TickerCompanyMcapP/EROED/EYieldQuality
TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated Common Stock$243.5B40.535.2%0.862.2%-Compare
2454.TWMediaTek$236.2B77.523.9%0.010.5%-Compare
MRVLMarvell Technology Inc. Common Stock$219.5B80.616.5%0.310.1%-Compare
QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated Common Stock$189.8B20.333.8%0.701.9%-Compare
285A.TKioxia Holdings Corporation$184.0B54.187.1%34.840.0%-Compare
ADIAnalog Devices Inc. Common Stock$182.1B44.612.2%0.251.2%-Compare

Sector report card

Where ARM ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…

News and Record

Reports in 44 days, last quarter beat by 0.1%.

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Recent performance

1 week
+4.1%
1 month
+10.5%
3 months
-37.3%
6 months
+108.2%
YTD
+152.1%
1 year
+88.1%

SEC filings

40 filings
September 2026
Sep 18
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-09-18
Sep 16
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-14
Sep 10
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-09-10
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR