ARM
ACCE-researchedOverview
ACCE thesis
ARM designs processor architectures and licenses them to semiconductor companies who build chips for smartphones, data centers, and automotive applications. The company controls over 95% of the mobile processor market through its energy-efficient RISC architecture, collecting royalties on every chip sold by partners like Qualcomm, Apple, and MediaTek. The AI boom is driving demand for ARM-based processors in data centers, with companies like Amazon and Microsoft designing custom chips using ARM's latest Neoverse architecture. Trading at 100x forward earnings after going public in September 2023, the stock reflects massive AI expectations but offers limited upside at current levels. Revenue growth has been modest in recent quarters, making this valuation hard to justify despite the company's dominant market position.
- severeExtreme valuation vs fair valueACCE fair value $85 vs current $297.71 - stock trades at 3.5x model fair value; V-score of 10/100 confirms extreme overvaluation.
- highP/E 385x unsustainableP/E of 385x and EV/EBITDA of 295.8x leave near-zero margin for error; any growth disappointment could trigger severe derating.
- highElevated short interestShort interest at 11.8% signals meaningful institutional skepticism about current valuation levels.
- moderateInsider selling onlyLast 10 disclosed transactions show $0 buys vs $33.26M in sales - insiders are distributing at current elevated prices.
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Price
Valuation
INVESTORSix independent models converge on one confidence-weighted fair value, with full methodology and editable assumptions.
- +All six models: DCF, P/E and EV/EBITDA comps, Graham, dividend discount, residual income
- +Scenario bands, sensitivity tornado, and the 5-year historical valuation range
- +Editable DCF workbench with saved scenarios
Quality
INVESTORThe full quality picture: conviction breakdown, earnings quality, score history, and backtested returns.
- +Conviction score breakdown and earnings-quality grade
- +Growth / value / quality / momentum component scores
- +90-day score history and score-threshold backtests
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
- +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
- +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
- +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PROFollow the institutions: 13F position changes, insider trades, and active 13D activist filings.
- +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
- +Recent open-market insider transactions
- +Active 13D activist filings and top holders
Compare
Where it sits vs peers
Algorithmic peers (6)
| Ticker | Company | Mcap | P/E | ROE | D/E | Yield | Quality | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated Common Stock | $243.5B | 40.5 | 35.2% | 0.86 | 2.2% | - | Compare |
| 2454.TW | MediaTek | $236.2B | 77.5 | 23.9% | 0.01 | 0.5% | - | Compare |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology Inc. Common Stock | $219.5B | 80.6 | 16.5% | 0.31 | 0.1% | - | Compare |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM Incorporated Common Stock | $189.8B | 20.3 | 33.8% | 0.70 | 1.9% | - | Compare |
| 285A.T | Kioxia Holdings Corporation | $184.0B | 54.1 | 87.1% | 34.84 | 0.0% | - | Compare |
| ADI | Analog Devices Inc. Common Stock | $182.1B | 44.6 | 12.2% | 0.25 | 1.2% | - | Compare |
Sector report card
Where ARM ranks against its sector peers on each metric.
News and Record
Press releases mentioning this company
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