3 models fit Ardent Health Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Silver76
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionArdent Health Inc. Common Stock (ARDT)
Fair value (3 models)
$16.46
ACCE price target
$12.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $16.95 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $12.27 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
25.4% below
+34.1% to fair value
ACCE score
53
out of 100
Analysts
54% buy
13 covering
P/E
22.7x
forward 9.8x
1-year return
-17.2%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Ardent Health Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Ardent Health operates acute care hospitals, behavioral health facilities and related outpatient services, the kind of local hospital footprint where a single system often anchors a regional market. Its moat is mostly local scale and payer relationships rather than anything patentable, which matters because hospital economics depend heavily on negotiated rates and labor costs. The thesis rests on margin recovery: operating margin is only 3.4% against a 58.4% gross margin, so small improvements in staffing efficiency or payer mix could move earnings sharply. Revenue shrank 1.4% and ROE is 10.0%, so the market is pricing in skepticism, and a forward P/E of 9.5 against a trailing 21.4 implies analysts expect earnings to rebound materially. That gap is the reason to look deeper, and the question to answer is whether volumes and margins are stabilizing or whether the forecast is too optimistic.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse and thin margins
Earnings fell 77.1% year over year on 1.2% net margin and 3.4% operating margin, while revenue slipped 1.4%. Profit is being squeezed, not just slowing.
high
Leverage elevated against equity
Debt/Equity of 1.34 sits on a business with a 1.2% net margin. Free cash flow of $259M helps, but a thin earnings base leaves little room if cash generation weakens.
moderate
Score down sharply in 90 days
The ACCE score fell 12 points, from 65 to 53, over 90 days. Quality (47) and growth (7) are the weak components driving the drop.
moderate
Heavy short interest
Short interest stands at 15.0% of float. That is a meaningful bet against the shares and can add volatility around earnings or news.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $259M, and the stock's free cash flow yield is 15.3%.
On forward earnings the shares trade at 9.5x, well below the sector median of 24.2x.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 1.4% year over year, which undercuts the 6.7% average annual growth over five years.
Net margin is just 1.2% and return on invested capital is only 2.8%, so little value is being earned on capital.
The latest quarterly earnings per share missed expectations by 29.4%, and the diluted share count rose 6.6% last year.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where ARDT's valuation models land
Price
$12.27
Model fair value
$16.46
Model range
$7.17 to $24.52
Fair value $16.46
Price $12.27
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores