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APLD
ACCE-researched

Applied Digital Corporation Common Stock (APLD) fair value

Technology · Information Technology Services · NASDAQ · United States
$18.25-4.40%
Market cap $5.8BNext earnings 2026-10-07Updated Oct 17, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 54% below our fair value
Price
$18.25
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $39.66
Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps and Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionApplied Digital Corporation Common Stock (APLD)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$15.30
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $24.00 since 2 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $18.25 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
28
out of 100
Analysts
87% buy
15 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 526.3x
1-year return
-45.3%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Applied Digital Corporation Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Applied Digital builds and leases data center capacity for high-density computing, mainly hosting for AI and cryptocurrency mining customers, and it has been converting its legacy hosting footprint into larger purpose-built campuses. Its edge is the scarce input: power and energized, liquid-cooled shell space that hyperscale and AI tenants struggle to secure quickly, which lets it sign long-term hosting contracts ahead of construction. Revenue growth of 322.4% shows how fast that capacity is coming online, but the business is still loss-making, with an operating margin of -18.3%, a gross margin of 21.6%, and a return on equity of -13.6%. The forward P/E of 526.3 means the market is paying for contracted capacity that has not yet turned into earnings, so the entire case rests on lease commencement schedules and whether tenants pay on time. The composite score of 29/100 and absence from any index suggest the quantitative screens see little support today, so the name merits a deeper look only if you are prepared to underwrite the build-out and financing risk directly.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 5 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Massive negative FCF
    Free cash flow is -$4.3B while revenue grows 432% YoY. Burn rate unsustainable without continued capital raises.
  • high
    Net margin collapse
    Net margin -53% despite 21.6% gross margin. Operating losses of -18.2% indicate unit economics don't work at scale.
  • high
    ACCE score deterioration
    Score fell 9 points in 90 days (40 to 31). Quality and valuation components weakened sharply.
  • high
    Insider selling with no buys
    Last 10 disclosures show $3.17M in sales, zero buys. Insiders exiting while stock held by 73.6% institutions.
  • moderate
    Elevated short interest
    20.9% short float suggests material skepticism on path to profitability given current burn and negative earnings surprise.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-08-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue surged 432.4% year over year, demonstrating explosive demand for AI infrastructure capacity.
  • Analyst consensus is overwhelmingly bullish, with 87% rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
  • Mean analyst price target of $64.27 implies 171.4% upside from the current $23.68 share price.
Why it could disappoint
  • The company burned $4.3B in free cash flow over the last 12 months while building capacity.
  • Net margin of negative 53.0% and ROE of negative 13.6% show the business is deeply unprofitable.
  • Share count diluted 36.8% in the last fiscal year as the company issued equity to fund operations.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

PRO

Ask ACCE

Valuation

INVESTOR
Where APLD's valuation models land
Price
$18.25
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $39.66
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
Sales comps
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish87% buy · 15 covering analysts
● Strong buy 11● Buy 2● Hold 2● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+1.1%
1 month
-33.0%
3 months
-32.9%
6 months
-47.8%
YTD
-25.6%
1 year
-45.3%

SEC filings

Recent ACCE blog coverage

  • $APLD Revenue Surges 406.6% YoY but Quality Flags Persist
    Applied Digital reported 406.6% year-over-year revenue growth, but net margins of -39.9% and an ACCE score of 35/100 tell a more complicated story.
    2026-10-08

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$15.30$24.00$18.05
2 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$24.00first publication$24.16

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth64Value11Quality21Momentum17Total28
Valuation
Trailing P/E
0.0x
Forward P/E
526.3x
PEG
1.83
P/B
4.51x
EV / Revenue
18.4x
Book value/sh
$5.39
Enterprise value
$11.2B
Profitability
ROE
-13.6%
FCF yield
-48.09%
ROIC
-2.9%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
2.86
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
6.00

Price

-45.4% · 1Y

Ask anything about APLD

Answered from Applied Digital Corporation Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 0.0x0.0xhigh 38.9x
ROEbetter than 0% of peers
low -14%-14%high 18%
Div yieldbetter than 0% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 2.5%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
APLD Applied Digital Corporation Common Stock$18.25----13.6%2128
3626.T TISI Inc.¥4451.00--20.3x15.4%6867
MPHASIS.NS Mphasis Limited₹2480.00--25.0x17.7%7261
2327.T NS Solutions Corporation¥4201.00--24.9x11.7%6363
4733.T OBIC Business Consultants Co., Ltd.¥9420.00--37.4x11.5%8165
LTTS.NS L&T Technology Services Limited₹3910.30--31.0x-8157
COFORGE.NS Coforge Limited₹1900.50--38.9x-7673

Sector report card

Where APLD ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • GlobeNewswire•Oct 6, 2026
    Applied Digital Secures Up to 1 GW of Potential Power Capacity in Finland, Marking First International Development in the Nordics
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 28, 2026
    Applied Digital Sets Fiscal First Quarter 2027 Conference Call for Wednesday, October 7, 2026, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time
  • GlobeNewswire•Jul 15, 2026
    Applied Digital Sets Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2026 Conference Call for Monday, July 27, 2026, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time
1 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 19
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-16
View on SEC →
Oct 19
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-16
View on SEC →
Oct 15
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-13
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR