2 models fit ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A Common Stock (APC)
Fair value (2 models)
$12.34
ACCE price target
$15.40
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $9.49 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 13 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $15.87 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
28.6% above
-22.3% to fair value
ACCE score
44
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
4 covering
P/E
18.4x
forward 0.0x
Dividend yield
4.79%
ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC) is a Class A common stock in the refining and marketing segment, with the thin margins that business implies: a 5.0% gross margin and a 1.3% operating margin. Revenue grew 27.4%, and return on equity sits at 64.4%, but the high ROE rests on a small equity base and a low-margin model, so the figure needs checking before it means much. At a trailing P/E of 19.1 and no forward estimate on file, the valuation depends on whether that revenue growth converts into earnings. The score of 42/100 and absence from any index suggest the stock has not yet earned a place on most screens. Worth a deeper look only if the reader can confirm the sources of the growth and whether operating margin is improving or simply tracking fuel prices.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Heavy leverage and thin margins
Debt/Equity of 10.76 against a net margin of +0.6% and operating margin of +1.3% leaves little room for a downturn in fuel margins. Earnings fell 10.2% YoY even as revenue grew 27.4%.
moderate
Earnings lagging revenue
Revenue grew 27.4% YoY but earnings declined 10.2%, so growth is not reaching the bottom line. ACCE score slipped from 51 to 48 over 90 days.
moderate
Price above valuation anchors
The stock trades 28.6% above the model fair value of $12.34, and 3.1% above the ACCE price target of $15.40. Sizing should reflect that the price already sits past both reference points.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 21, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-21 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts are unanimous, with all four rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and their mean price target sits well above the current price.
The stock offers a 8.6% free cash flow yield and a 3.1% dividend yield at today's price.
Revenue grew 27.4% year over year and free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $65M.
Why it could disappoint
Leverage is extreme, with debt at 10.76 times equity, so a small drop in fuel margins could hit the equity hard.
Earnings missed expectations last quarter, with EPS of 0.26 against 0.36 expected, a 27.8% shortfall.
The stock trades 28.6% above the model fair value of $12.34, and only 2 of 4 valuation models in the consensus were used.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where APC's valuation models land
Price
$15.87
Model fair value
$12.34
Model range
$9.32 to $15.36
Fair value $12.34
Price $15.87
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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