Market cap MXN 33.6BNext earnings 2026-10-21Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 28% below our fair value
Price
MXN 15.54
Model fair valueConfidence: good
MXN 21.55
Model range
MXN 13.33 to MXN 30.50
Fair value MXN 21.55
Price MXN 15.54
3 models fit Alpek and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Silver79
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionAlpek (ALPEKA.MX)
Fair value (3 models)
MXN 21.55
ACCE price target
MXN 17.70
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 11:04 CEST; previously MXN 22.12 since 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 24 Oct 2026, 03:20 CEST; previously MXN 13.85 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: MXN 15.54 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 23:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
27.9% below
+38.7% to fair value
ACCE score
67
out of 100
P/E
50.1x
forward 16.5x
1-year return
+64.4%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Alpek in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Alpek is a Monterrey-based petrochemical producer whose main lines are PET resin and polyester fibers, plus expandable polystyrene and engineering plastics, with a large share of its output sold into beverage bottling and packaging. Its edge is scale in PET and polyester feedstock integration in Mexico, which lets it run cost-competitive plants close to US and Latin American customers. The near-term story rests on volume recovery in packaging and a cyclical turn in petrochemical spreads, which should lift the 14.3% revenue growth rate the company is currently posting. The stock trades at 8.4 times trailing earnings but 17.8 times forward, a gap that tells you the market expects earnings to fall before any rebound, so the question is whether spreads normalize as the consensus assumes. A 5.1% return on equity and a 17.1% operating margin against a 10.7% gross margin suggest a thin layer between operating and gross profit that deserves a close look at the cost structure before the thesis is accepted.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Thin net margin
Net margin is +0.5% against a 17.1% operating margin, and P/E sits at 50.1. Reported earnings are being eaten below operating income, so the strong EPS surprise rests on a small base.
high
Leveraged balance sheet
Debt/Equity is 1.65 with ROE at only +5.1%. Returns on equity are low for the leverage carried, which limits the cushion if the chemicals cycle turns.
moderate
Weak five-year growth
Five-year revenue CAGR is +2.2% against +14.3% in the latest year. The recent acceleration is a single year, not an established trend.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 24, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached MXN 5.1B, a yield of 15.2% at the current share price.
Analysts' mean price target of MXN 16.92 sits 8.9% above the share price, and the model fair value is MXN 21.55, 27.9% above the price.
The latest quarter beat expectations, with earnings per share of 0.97 against 0.30 expected, a surprise of +223.3%.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin is just 0.5% and return on invested capital is negative at -3.8%, so the business is not earning its cost of capital.
Debt to equity of 1.65 leaves a heavily leveraged balance sheet, which offers little room if margins stay thin.
Trailing earnings multiple is 50.1x against a forward multiple of 16.5x, so the forward figure relies on earnings rebounding sharply.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where ALPEKA.MX's valuation models land
Price
MXN 15.54
Model fair value
MXN 21.55
Model range
MXN 13.33 to MXN 30.50
Fair value MXN 21.55
Price MXN 15.54
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
+Score history: how each score moved over time
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
No analyst coverage yet.
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
+ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PRO
In one line
Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.