4 models fit Alcon Inc. Ordinary Shares and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionAlcon Inc. Ordinary Shares (ALC)
Fair value (4 models)
$56.48
ACCE price target
$73.50
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $61.27 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $92.00 since 8 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $70.17 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
24.2% above
-19.5% to fair value
ACCE score
47
out of 100
Analysts
78% buy
27 covering
P/E
53.5x
forward 16.2x
1-year return
-8.0%
Dividend yield
0.51%
Alcon Inc. Ordinary Shares in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Alcon makes intraocular lenses for cataract surgery, contact lenses, and eye-care surgical equipment, and it is one of the few pure-play ophthalmology companies of its size. The structural case rests on an aging population undergoing more cataract procedures, plus premium lens adoption that lifts revenue per surgery. Revenue growth of 8.7% is the number to test against that tailwind, since the question is whether volume and mix can keep compounding at that pace. The stock screens expensive on trailing earnings at 50.4x but looks far more reasonable at 16.2x forward, which means the market is pricing a sharp earnings recovery that has not yet shown up in reported results. A 14.6% operating margin against a 57.2% gross margin leaves room for improvement, but the 2.9% ROE says the balance sheet and reinvestment load are weighing on returns, which is the first thing a deeper look would need to explain.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse
YoY earnings down 44.6% despite 8.7% revenue growth. Suggests margin deterioration or one-time charges masking operational stress.
high
Valuation disconnect
Trailing P/E of 48.6 vs forward P/E of 16.2 implies market expects sharp earnings recovery.
moderate
Weak profitability metrics
ROE of 2.9% and net margin of 5.9% are low for a $31B healthcare company. ACCE Quality score of 59 and Momentum score of 25 reflect operational softness.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-11 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Consensus analysts see 30.3% upside to $83.55, with 78% rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Strong balance sheet with 0.25 debt to equity and $1.3B free cash flow supports a 4.1% yield.
Why it could disappoint
Trailing P/E of 48.6x and consensus fair value 4.4% below current price signal near-term overvaluation.
ROE of 2.9% and ROIC of 3.5% lag the risk-free rate of 5.2%, destroying shareholder value.
Five-year revenue growth of 6.1% per year trails the 5.2% perpetual growth the price already implies.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 10, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where ALC's valuation models land
Price
$70.17
Model fair value
$56.48
Model range
$39.21 to $84.68
Fair value $56.48
Price $70.17
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores