3 models fit American Financial Group Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Silver68
Valued as an insurer: Residual income, P/E comparison, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionAmerican Financial Group Inc. Common Stock (AFG)
Fair value (3 models)
$120
ACCE price target
$148
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST; previously $118 since 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST.
Price used: $151 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, Dividend discount, and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
25.6% above
-20.4% to fair value
ACCE score
70
out of 100
Analysts
29% buy
7 covering
P/E
13.2x
forward 12.4x
1-year return
+12.7%
Dividend yield
2.53%
American Financial Group Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
American Financial Group writes specialty property and casualty insurance, mainly commercial lines such as excess and surplus, transportation, and specialty casualty, alongside a annuity business run through Great American Financial Resources. Its edge is underwriting discipline in niche segments where pricing is hard to replicate, which shows up in a 20.4% ROE and a 17.2% operating margin. The main near-term driver is continued pricing firmness in commercial lines, with revenue growing 5.8% while the stock trades at 12.7x trailing and 11.5x forward earnings. The shares look inexpensive for a company earning a 20% return on equity, though the valuation is only as useful as the reserve adequacy and catastrophe losses that will determine whether those earnings hold. Worth a deeper look to test whether the underwriting margins are durable or cyclical.