Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps and Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionAtlas Energy Solutions Inc. Common Stock (AESI)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$7.50
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $11.50 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $8.66 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
24
out of 100
Analysts
54% buy
13 covering
1-year return
-18.2%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Atlas Energy Solutions makes frac sand and runs the last-mile logistics that move it to Permian Basin well sites, including its Dune Express conveyor system and its in-basin mine network. The moat is mostly logistics: owning proximate sand reserves and the conveyor infrastructure lowers delivered cost for operators, but the business has not yet turned that into profit, with revenue growth of just 1.6%, a 23.4% gross margin and a -6.8% operating margin. The forward P/E of 44.2 prices in a recovery in earnings that the current numbers do not yet show, so the case rests on whether Permian completion activity and pricing for sand and logistics firm up enough to lift margins. With a $1.3B market cap, a 32/100 score and no index membership, this is a small, unloved name; it merits a deeper look only if you can underwrite a margin inflection, which the numbers so far do not confirm.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse and losses
Earnings fell 96.2% YoY, net margin is -11.1% and ROE is -9.9%. Revenue grew only 1.6% over the same year, so profitability is deteriorating while sales stand still.
high
Heavy short interest
Short interest stands at 26.5% of shares. That level signals strong bearish conviction among informed sellers and can amplify volatility in either direction.
moderate
Negative free cash flow
Free cash flow is -$30.9M, so the business is consuming cash despite a 0.48 debt-to-equity ratio. Continued burn would pressure the balance sheet.
moderate
ACCE score falling
The ACCE score dropped 8 points over 90 days, from 34 to 26, with the quality and momentum components both weak at 31 and 25. The trend is worsening, not stabilising.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-19 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts are fairly bullish, with 54% (7 of 13) rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Revenue grew 57.9% per year on average over five years, showing strong long-run expansion.
The analysts' mean price target of $17.69 sits 79.8% above the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last 12 months was -$31M, so the business is burning cash.
The latest earnings missed expectations, with EPS of -0.18 against -0.12 expected, a 50.0% shortfall.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 2, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where AESI's valuation models land
Price
$8.66
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $16.86
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
Sales comps
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores