Communication Services · Advertising Agencies · Nasdaq Stockholm · Sweden
kr 40.10+1.78%
Market cap kr 666MNext earnings 2025-04-02Updated Oct 22, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 22% below our fair value
Price
kr 40.10
Model fair valueConfidence: good
kr 51.29
Model range
kr 43.54 to kr 60.32
Fair value kr 51.29
Price kr 40.10
2 models fit Adtraction Group AB and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)Silver68
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionAdtraction Group AB (ADTR.ST)
Fair value (2 models)
kr 51.29
ACCE price target
kr 43.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:53 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: kr 40.10 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
21.8% below
+27.9% to fair value
ACCE score
55
out of 100
1-year return
+35.0%
Dividend yield
5.58%
Adtraction Group AB in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Adtraction Group is a Swedish performance-marketing platform that connects advertisers with affiliate publishers and runs the commission tracking behind those deals, so it earns a cut of sales it helps generate rather than selling media by the impression. Its edge is a large publisher network and an in-house tracking stack, which makes it a sticky intermediary for brands that want to pay only for results. Revenue grew 19.5% recently, but the business is thin-margined: gross margin is 7.9% and operating margin is -1.7%, so the growth has not yet translated into profit. The case for a closer look rests on whether that top-line momentum can start to widen margins as scale builds, and at a market cap of 654M SEK, with negative ROE of -6.6% and no index membership, the investable question is one of operating leverage rather than valuation.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapsing year on year
Earnings are down 60.0% YoY while revenue grew 19.5%, so profit is not keeping pace with sales. Net margin is -1.0% and operating margin -1.7%, with ROE at -6.6%.
moderate
Insider-controlled float
Insiders hold 70.4% of shares and institutions only 5.3%, leaving a thin free float that can make the price move sharply on modest trading.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 19.5% year over year, ahead of its 16.8% average annual pace over the past five years.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was SEK 69M, and the stock's free cash flow yield stands at 10.4%.
Analysts' mean price target of SEK 50.00 sits 26.9% above the current share price of kr 40.10.
Why it could disappoint
The company is still losing money, with a net margin of -1.0% and return on equity of -6.6%.
Return on invested capital of -7.8% shows the business is not yet earning a return on the capital it uses.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.8x, which the market may be pricing for weak earnings rather than growth.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where ADTR.ST's valuation models land
Price
kr 40.10
Model fair value
kr 51.29
Model range
kr 43.54 to kr 60.32
Fair value kr 51.29
Price kr 40.10
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
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Analysts
Wall Street consensus
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Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
+ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
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