3 models fit Adobe Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)Silver69
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionAdobe Inc. Common Stock (ADBE)
Fair value (3 models)
$312
ACCE price target
$282
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $357 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $275 since 15 Jun 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: $264 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
15.5% below
+18.3% to fair value
ACCE score
74
out of 100
Analysts
23% buy
39 covering
P/E
14.7x
forward 9.6x
1-year return
-25.5%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Adobe Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Adobe sells Creative Cloud (Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere), Document Cloud (Acrobat, Sign) and the Firefly generative AI models, most of it sold as recurring subscriptions. The moat is switching cost: studios, agencies and enterprises have built workflows, file formats and trained staff around these tools, which is why gross margin holds at 89.3% and operating margin at 34.8%. Revenue growth of 12.9% is respectable for a company of this scale, and the open question is whether Firefly and AI-assisted features lift average revenue per user rather than just defending the base. At 8.7x forward earnings against a trailing 14.1x, the market is pricing in a meaningful slowdown, so the case rests on whether that slowdown shows up in the numbers. ADBE scores 68/100 in our framework and is a name worth a deeper look, particularly on the durability of subscription pricing and AI monetisation.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
ACCE Quality score lagging
Quality subscore of 38/100 is materially weak relative to overall 70, suggesting operational or execution concerns not fully reflected in headline metrics.
moderate
Forward earnings deceleration
Forward P/E of 8.7 vs trailing 13.5 implies market expects earnings growth to slow materially from current 10.5% YoY pace.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-08-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
The company generates $9.9B in free cash flow with a 10.4% yield, enabling aggressive shareholder returns while maintaining a conservative 0.57 debt-to-equity ratio.
Adobe's 28.1% net margin and 61.9% return on equity demonstrate pricing power and capital efficiency that few software peers match.
Why it could disappoint
The stock's current price implies only 3.1% annual cash flow growth over the next five years, leaving no room for execution stumbles.
Adobe missed earnings expectations by 2.3% most recently, and only 28% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Revenue growth of 12.9% year-over-year is slowing toward the 5-year average of 13.1%, suggesting the growth narrative is maturing.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Dec 9, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where ADBE's valuation models land
Price
$263.82
Model fair value
$312
Model range
$108 to $401
Fair value $312
Price $264
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
STNG posts 12.7% FCF yield while ADBE hits 11.1% and PINS reaches 9.9%. Here's what free cash flow yield actually tells you about a stock's quality and value.
Adobe's ACCE composite score fell from 82 to 66, a significant 16-point decline that signals potential shifts in growth, value, quality or momentum metrics.
2026-04-30
Recommendation history, last 12 months
Date
Type
New
Previous
Price
21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST
Fair value
$312
$357
$257
21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST
Rating
Undervalued
first publication
$257
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
ACCE price target
$282
$275
$245
17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$357
$340
$252
12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$340
$419
$242
8 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$419
$410
$238
6 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$410
$419
$238
2 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$419
$413
$240
27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$413
$422
$235
25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$422
$414
$241
Price
-25.4% · 1Y
Ask anything about ADBE
Answered from Adobe Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.